Friday, February 16, 2007
A Look at Best Animated Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
I've seen Cars and Monster House.
CARS-This is quite a charming film, and it's becoming a sure thing. It's not the best reviewed animated film of the year (er...I don't think so), but the fact that it's from Pixar automatically makes it the frontrunner. Winning the Annie doesn't hurt either. But, with varied support for its competitors, it faces some challenges.
HAPPY FEET-Eek. It's so hard to predict against those penguins. What it has that's going for it is an all star cast, a surprisingly huge box office run and the fact that penguins are probably the cutest thing to ever walk the Earth. The problem is that it's not from Pixar and the audience and critical reaction was mixed. But it could become the surprise of the year, given how weak this year's selection is.
MONSTER HOUSE-Sigh. Such an overrated film. It's possible that strong critical reception and Steven Spielberg's name (as a producer) could bring it to a win, but with Cars and Happy feet already taking the lead, it's unlikely. There just can't be three frontrunners (unless you're talking about Best Picture).
WILL WIN: Cars
SHOULD WIN: Cars
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Cars
2. Happy Feet
3. Monster House
Tomorrow: Best Foreign Film
Thursday, February 15, 2007
A Look at Best Documentary Feature
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
I've seen two--Jesus Camp and An Inconvenient Truth.
DELIVER US FROM EVIL-This received the best reviews for any documentary this year, and frankly, it has the most interesting synopsis. It just didn't get the exposure an Oscar winner normally needs. But, this category has had some rather odd winners in the past. Plus, it has a couple of precursors. It poses some sort of a threat.
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH-Because this is probably the only movie on this list a non-film buff has heard of, it's the frontrunner automatically. Not only that, but it also received a nomination for Best Original Song, which most documentaries never, ever do. This one will be hard, if not impossible, to beat.
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS-This has won some minor precursors from critics' groups, but it would still be a huge surprise if it took the statuette. And, if nothing else, it will likely split votes with its fellow Iraq-subjected documentary "My Country, My Country."
JESUS CAMP-First of all, let me say that, as a secular liberal, this was an excellent film. If it were up to me, this would be in consideration for Best Picture, let alone Best Documentary Feature. But, sadly, it's not a notably baity subject matter and the Academy will, like in most years where the predictions are unclear, pick the obvious choices. Unfortuately, Jesus Camp won't take the prize.
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY-I take it back. THIS has the best synopsis out of all the documentaries nominated. But, most people haven't heard of, let alone seen, this film. It won't win the Oscar, but it will win a spot on my TV screen when it comes out on DVD (assuming that it will be carried).
WILL WIN: An Inconvenient Truth
SHOULD WIN: Jesus Camp
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. An Inconvenient Truth
2. Deliver Us From Evil
3. Iraq in Fragments
4. Jesus Camp
5. My Country, My Country
Tomorrow: Best Animated Film
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
A Look at Best Film Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93
I've seen Babel, The Departed and United 93. And one by one we go...
BABEL-In a neck-and-neck race against The Departed, I think Babel will come out on top. Why? Mostly it's just an inkling, but a lot of it is because Babel can't and won't walk away empty handed. It's the most nominated Best Picture nominee, for God's sake, and since I'm not predicting it to win Best Picture or any other category (I don't think), it'll win this by default. But, on the other hand, The Color Purple and Gangs of New York both recieved double digit nominations and were shut out...
BLOOD DIAMOND-Jeez, who would've expected that the Academy would be so in love with this movie? Average critical reception and no Best Picture nomination (duh) will be what prevents this one from winning the golden statue.
CHILDREN OF MEN-Normally, this would be the frontrunner. It's very artistic, it had an outstanding response from critics and audiences alike, it has many settings and requires smooth transitions (which require good editing, by the way) and it was really close to getting a Best Picture nomination (or so we assume). But, with The Departed, Babel and even United 93 in the running, this one is pushed to the back of the line.
THE DEPARTED-This is actually very likely, it's just that Babel has interlocking storylines. The very premise of Babel, which has many set changes and twists, depends on being well edited for overall success. Because it's clear that AMPAS thinks it accomplished that, it seems like the favorite. But don't count it out just yet. As a matter of fact, it probably has the same odds as Babel.
UNITED 93-As much as I loved this film, the editing certainly wasn't the star of it. Because it was meant to be as realistic as possible, there weren't any fancy editing tricks or anything. I think it got nominated because it was so lean, at just the right running length. Maybe that'll be enough for it to upset...
WILL WIN: Babel
SHOULD WIN: The Departed or Babel
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Babel
2. The Departed
3. United 93
4. Children of Men
5. Blood Diamond
Tomorrow: Best Documentary Feature
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
A Look at Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
The only one I've seen is The Prestige. Yeech.
THE BLACK DAHLIA-This got SLAMMED by the critics, which will probably be enough for the Academy to shut it out, especially when the competition is so much better. But could the pure baitiness of the film's subject matter be enough for it to pull off an upset? No. Of course not. Don't be stupid.
CHILDREN OF MEN-This is a movie that depends on its cinematography to be successful, and, from what I understand, it did so. Also, the fact that it didn't get a Director or Picture nomination (probably because it only got last minute buzz. Release your Oscar contenders in MID December, people!), this one is looking like a done deal.
THE ILLUSIONIST-Remember when Edward Norton was getting all that Best Actor buzz over the summer? Well, just like the film, all of those memories are fogged now. No one remembers this one, and the Academy will likely be no exception.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-Just as with almost every category it's nominated for, Pan's stands a chance in this race if the support is as strong as it could be. But, with Children of Men in competition, it'd be a surprise. But never say never...
THE PRESTIGE-The cinematography in The Prestige was, like this film, forgettable. It'll take a whole lot of support that I highly doubt it will receive in order to pull off a win anywhere, including here.
WILL WIN: Children of Men
SHOULD WIN: N/A
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Children of Men
2. Pan's Labyrinth
3. The Illusionist
4. The Black Dahila
5. The Prestige
Tomorrow: Best Film Editing (ahh! we're getting close!)
Monday, February 12, 2007
Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed Take WGA
But, until then, check out these videos I got from one of our contributors. So hilarious...
and
A Look at Best Original Score
Gustavo Santaolalla-Babel
Thomas Newman-The Good German
Philip Glass-Notes on a Scandal
Javier Navarrete-Pan's Labyrinth
Alexandre Desplat-The Queen
I've seen The Queen and Babel, but I listened to the iTunes samples of the others.
BABEL-This has a great, subtle score. It was the favorite all year, until The Painted Veil won at the Globes. But, now that it isn't nominated, Babel shouldn't have much trouble winning. Unless The Queen gets in the way...
THE GOOD GERMAN-It takes a lot for the Academy to give an Oscar to a film that got panned by the critics, even if the quality of the movie has little to do with the award itself. But, keep in mind that Thomas Newman is a brilliant composer, and this is a brilliant score, but it's still a very slim chance.
NOTES ON A SCANDAL-This movie looks outstanding, and it's the type of movie that depends on a good score for the film itself to work (and believe me, it has one. Oh boy does it have one...). I can actually really see this one taking the prize, but it would be unexpected. Still, don't count it out.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-This is one of the few categories this movie is nominated for where it can't be considered a possible winner, even though it does have an excellent score. Best Picture contenders and/or substance-free eye candies are usually the winners here.
THE QUEEN-A quite possible upset. Though I personally think that the score is overrated, but The Queen has been given too much love to only walk away with one win. Or has it? Either way, this is a major threat on the prowl for frontrunner status.
WILL WIN: Babel
SHOULD WIN: Notes on a Scandal
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Babel
2. The Queen
3. Notes on a Scandal
4. The Good German
5. Pan's Labyrinth
Tomorrow: Best Cinematography
Sunday, February 11, 2007
BAFTA Winners!
Film
* The Queen
Babel
The Departed
The Last King Of Scotland
Little Miss Sunshine
Best British Film Of The Year
* The Last King Of Scotland
Casino Royale
Notes On A Scandal
The Queen
United 93
The Carl Foreman Award For Special Achievement By A British Director, Writer Or Producer In Their First Feature Film
* Andrea Arnold (Director) - Red Road
Julian Gilbey (Director) - Rollin' With The Nines
Christine Langan (Producer) - Pierrepoint
Gary Tarn (Director) - Black Sun
Paul Andrew Williams (Director) - London To Brighton
The David Lean Award For Achievement In Direction
* United 93 - Paul Greengrass
Babel - Alejandro González Iñárritu
The Departed - Martin Scorsese
Little Miss Sunshine - Jonathan Dayton/Valerie Faris
The Queen - Stephen Frears
Original Screenplay
* Little Miss Sunshine - Michael Arndt
Babel - Guillermo Arriaga
Pan's Labyrinth - Guillermo Del Toro
The Queen - Peter Morgan
United 93 - Paul Greengrass
Adapted Screenplay
* The Last King Of Scotland - Peter Morgan/Jeremy Brock
Casino Royale - Neal Purvis/Robert Wade/Paul Haggis
The Departed - William Monahan
The Devil Wears Prada - Aline Brosh Mckenna
Notes On A Scandal - Patrick Marber
Film Not In The English Language
* Pan's Labyrinth
Apocalypto
Black Book (Zwartboek)
Rang De Basanti (Paint It Yellow)
Volver
Animated Feature Film
* Happy Feet
Cars
Flushed Away
Actor In A Leading Role
* Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland
Daniel Craig - Casino Royale
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Richard Griffiths - The History Boys
Peter O'toole - Venus
Actress In A Leading Role
* Helen Mirren - The Queen
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
* Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
James Mcavoy - The Last King Of Scotland
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Leslie Phillips - Venus
Michael Sheen - The Queen
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
* Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Emily Blunt - The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Toni Colette - Little Miss Sunshine
Frances De La Tour - The History Boys
The Anthony Asquith Award For Achievement In Film Music
* Babel - Gustavo Santaolalla
Casino Royale - David Arnold
Dreamgirls - Henry Krieger
Happy Feet - John Powell
The Queen - Alexandre Desplat
Cinematography
* Children Of Men - Emmanuel Lubezki
Babel - Rodrigo Prieto
Casino Royale - Phil Meheux
Pan's Labyrinth - Guillermo Navarro
United 93 - Barry Ackroyd
Editing
* United 93 - Clare Douglas/Christopher
Babel - Stephen Mirrione/Douglas Crise
Casino Royale - Stuart Baird
The Departed - Thelma Schoonmaker
The Queen - Lucia Zucchetti
Rouse/Richard Pearson
Production Design
* Children Of Men - Geoffrey Kirkland/Jim Clay/Jennifer Williams
Casino Royale - Peter Lamont/Simon Wakefield
Marie Antoinette - K K Barrett/Véronique Melery
Pan's Labyrinth - Eugenio Caballero/Pilar Revuelta
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Rick Heinrichs/Cheryl A Carasik
Costume Design
* Pan's Labyrinth - Lala Huete
The Devil Wears Prada - Patricia Field
Marie Antoinette - Milena Canonero
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Penny Rose
The Queen - Consolata Boyle
Sound
* Casino Royale - Chris Munro/Eddy Joseph/Mike Prestwood Smith/Martin Cantwell/Mark Taylor
Babel - José García/Jon Taylor/Chris Minkler/Martín Hernández
Pan's Labyrinth - Martín Hernández/Jamie Bashkt
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Christopher Boyes/George Watters Ii/ Paul Massey/Lee Orloff
United 93 - Chris Munro/Mike Prestwood Smith/Douglas Cooper/Oliver Tarney/Eddy Joseph
Achievement In Special Visual Effects
* Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - John Knoll/Hal Hickel/Charles Gibson
Casino Royale - Steve Begg/Chris Corbould
Children Of Men - Frazer Churchill/Tim Webber/Michael Eames/Paul Corbould
Pan's Labyrinth - Edward Irastorza/Everett Burrell
Superman Returns - Mark Stetson
Make Up & Hair
* Pan's Labyrinth
The Devil Wears Prada
Marie Antoinette
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Queen
Short Animation Film
* Guy 101
Dreams And Desires - Family Ties
Peter And The Wolf
Short Film
* Do Not Erase
Care
Cubs
Hikikomori
Kissing, Tickling And Being Bored
The next step: Tonight's WGA. And, what are the chances that the Writer's Guild and the BAFTAs have their awards on the same day as the Grammys?
A Look at Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
I've seen three of the nominees--The Prestige, Pirates and Dreamgirls. One by one...
DREAMGIRLS-This movie had great art direction, and a whole lot of it. It has a small chance, but a chance all the same. The overwhelming favorite is Pan's (which I hope to see today), and that will probably end up doing it. Sigh.
THE GOOD SHEPHERD-Talk about getting shut out. I haven't seen this and I don't plan to (De Niro is an average director, if you ask me), and the trailers didn't provide any really big art direction achievements. Not a big deal.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-Ugh, I am DYING to see this movie! This movie, artistic in its nature, looks like a lot of it will revolve around its visuals. Those are often the types of movies that rewarded with Best Art Direction. This is the safe pick, and I just can't resist predicting it.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST-It already has Visual Effects, and there's no chance that this is going to get more than one Oscar. I mean, it's a major blockbuster, a summer sequel, it has Johnny Depp, Kiera Knightley and Orlando Bloom and, um, IT'S ABOUT PIRATES. Doesn't sound awfully baity.
THE PRESTIGE-I thought that the art direction in this film suited the film's plot: it was dull but thought it was fantastic. Don't count on this one.
WILL WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
SHOULD WIN: Dreamgirls or Pan's Labyrinth
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Pan's Labyrinth
2. Dreamgirls
3. The Good Shepherd
4. The Prestige
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Tomorrow: Best Original Score
Saturday, February 10, 2007
A Look at Best Original Song
"I Need to Wake Up"-An Inconvenient Truth
"Listen"-Dreamgirls
"Love You I Do"-Dreamgirls
"Our Town"-Cars
"Patience"-Dreamgirls
Wow. I think this is the only category where I've seen every film nominated. One by one...
I NEED TO WAKE UP-It's a good song, but I doubt Al Gore's (great) Powerpoint Presentation will become the first documentary ever to win more than one Oscar. Nonetheless, I'm looking forward to seeing Melissa Etheridge perform.
LISTEN-It's not the best original song in Dreamgirls, but it is good. Everyone's buzzing this one, and because the GG winner "Song of the Heart" from Happy Feet wasn't nominated, this is almost a sure thing. Almost...
LOVE YOU I DO-Ugh, I wish I could stop listening to this song. It's soooo impossibly good. Sadly, though, it doesn't stand a chance. Dreamgirls is already risking vote-splitting, and this won't win. It deserves to, though.
OUR TOWN-I don't even remember this song. I remember that I liked most of the songs in Cars, though. Still, this only stands a chance if there is major vote splitting between the Dreamgirls songs. But that's actually a pretty good chance...
PATIENCE-This is an average song. The "Happy Feet" song really should have replaced it. It's very unlikely for this to pull off the win. In fact, it's impossible. It has everything going against it.
WILL WIN: "Listen"-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: "Love You I Do"-Dreamgirls
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. "Listen"
2. "Our Town"
3. "I Need to Wake Up"
4. "Love You I Do"
5. "Patience."
Tomorrow: Best Art Direction
Friday, February 9, 2007
February 11, 2007: The Final Hope for a Clear Oscar Race
Babel-Golden Globe
The Departed-Critic's Choice Award
Letters From Iwo Jima-National Board of Review
Little Miss Sunshine-Producer's Guild of America
The Queen-BAFTA
This will make for a remarkably exciting Oscar night.
A Look at Best Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen
I've seen The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls and The Queen, but it's not too difficult to tell whether or not a movie has good costumes from the trailers. After all, that's where they'd put their A-material. Let's go one by one...
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER-It got the nomination, which makes sense, but it's weird because practically no one has seen the movie. If it got more exposure, it would be a real threat, but now, it's unlikely.
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA-Because this movie revloved around clothes and fashion and no one came back from it without talking about how great the clothes were, it's obviously a serious contender. The thing is: it's a contemporary film. Most Best Costume Design winners are period pieces. Still, just as Reese Witherspoon brought back glamour to the Best Actress category last year, it could pull off the win if it gets the right support.
DREAMGIRLS-This is the type of movie that the Academy loves to give the Costume Design award to. Something brassy that serves as eye candy. And being a musical is icing on the cake. But there's one other nominee that the Academy loves to give the award to, and it is...
MARIE ANTOINETTE-...this one. Even before it was released and we thought it would be a Best Picture contender, we knew that this was a lock for Best Costume Design. I mean, look at it: You have a period piece set in a time famous for its fashion, you have the beautiful Kirsten Dunst wearing them and the movie is just overall artsy. It's approaching lock territory.
THE QUEEN-I'm afraid that the nomination was the reward for this one. Naturally, "The Queen" already has Best Actress, so it all evens out. It's just not a costume-based movie. But you never know...
WILL WIN: Marie Antoinette
SHOULD WIN: Marie Antoinette or Dreamgirls
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Marie Antoinette
2. Dreamgirls
3. Curse of the Golden Flower
4. The Devil Wears Prada
5. The Queen
Tomorrow: Best Original Song
Thursday, February 8, 2007
A Look at Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth
I've only seen Click (though I wish I hadn't), so let's hope I can get it right anyways.
APOCALYTO-Not unlikely, considering its technical nominations, but I've already predicted it for Best Sound Mixing. Nonetheless, the makeup plays a massive part in this film (or so I understand). Don't count it out, but this seems like the type of year that's so unpredictable that they just go with the obvious choices. This isn't one of them.
CLICK-Let me start by saying that this was the worst movie of the year. And last year. And the year before that. How this got a nomination at all is beyond me; while I was watching it, I actually commented on how remarkably bad the makeup was. Grr. Luckily, it's more likely for "Date Movie" to get a write-in nomination for Best Picture than for this to win.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-Ugh, I'm dying to see this movie. The makeup looks AMAZING, and the Academy showed so much love for it that it's a lock for this and Best Foreign Language film. The trailers look outstanding, both from a technical and storyline aspect. Even though I haven't seen it, I'll be rooting for this one.
WILL WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
SHOULD WIN: Pan's Labyrinth (the trailer showed parts from the movie. It had better makeup than the trailer for Apocalypto and Click...well I won't go into that. Viola.)
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Pan's Labyrinth
2. Apocalypto
3. Click (GOD forbid)
Tomorrow: Best Costume Design
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
A Look at Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns
I've seen all of the nominees, so this one won't be quite as difficult.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST-While this category is usually used for the novelty of having an Oscar winning summer movie, this one will accomplish that AND reward the year's best special effects. Bill Nighy looks outstanding as Davy Jones--I'm a huge fan of his work and I didn't realize it was him until I looked it up on IMDB. This one will and should win.
POSEIDON-What a mess of a film. The special effects were decent, but I can think of a lot of movies that deserved the nod more. Not a big threat. As a matter of fact, not a threat at all.
SUPERMAN RETURNS-Pretty good movie, but the visuals were worthy only of a nomination. I suppose it could upset; after all, this category has proven to be a supporter of the "annual surprise," but I think that, since the Academy has showed so much love for Pirates in the technical categories, this would be the one for it to win in. It's approaching lock territory.
WILL WIN: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
SHOULD WIN: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. Poseidon
Tomorrow: Best Makeup
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
A Look at Best Sound Mixing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
I've only seen POTC and Dreamgirls, so again, this one might be hard to analyze. I'll just play it safe.
APOCALYPTO-By process of elimination, it seems as if this is the only film that can win. Well, at least by my twisted logic. It's a little awkward to talk about why the other nominees can't win in the post for the predicted winner, so just keep on reading.
BLOOD DIAMOMND-Don't ask why, but I just don't think that I can see Blood Diamond winning an Oscar (which is weird because it got much more love than expected). It seems like it'll be one of those "always a bridesmaid" films in terms of award wins.
DREAMGIRLS-Yeech. Let me start by saying...HOW THE HELL DID THIS NOT GET A NOMINATION FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR OR ADAPTED SCREENPLAY???? This film had excellent sound, and musicals are usually favorites to win this category. But, also being snubbed for a Best Sound Editing nomination, it's unlikely. But, I'll stay optimistic and say that it COULD do it (which it can, I suppose).
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS-It's very rare for a movie to win both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing because they're really just sympathy awards. Unlikely.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST-Again, this one will win Visual Effects over the phone, and this really isn't worth more than one Oscar. Its chances are slim to none (and it leans towards none).
WILL WIN: Apocalypto
SHOULD WIN: Dreamgirls
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Apocalypto
2. Dreamgirls
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Blood Diamond
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Tomorrow: Best Visual Effects
Monday, February 5, 2007
A Look at Best Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Yuck. The only nominee I've seen is POTC, which had decent sound but nothing better than what I expected from a $200 Million budget action movie. Let's go one by one...
APOCALYPTO-It has a lot going for it. It was a surprisingly well-liked action movie that is known for its technical achievements. But the mostly Jewish members of the Academy could still be repulsed (and deservedly so) at Mel Gibson for his anti-Semitic remarks. But, keeping in mind that it wasn't Gibson that did the sound editing, we'll put this one in the "maybe" pile.
BLOOD DIAMOND-Not as impossible as it may seem. From what I understand, this is a very, well, noisy picture. I don't know what to think of it. On one hand, it only got three nominations and it didn't get much critical acclaim, and this category is often used to reward movies that AMPAS wouldn't want to reward otherwise, but on the other hand, Leo was able to snag a nomination for this instead of The Departed, so you never know. But for now, I doubt it.
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS-As of now, this is the frontrunner. It faces some challenges, mostly from the two films already discussed, but, since the Academy would reward a movie about paint drying if Clint Eastwood directed it, they won't have him go home empty-handed (okay, well not HIM, but his film), and there really isn't another category he can win (I REFUSE to bring up the possibility of him upsetting Scorsese for Director and Picture). This seems like a good place to do it.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-Though it seems more likely for Eastwood's Best Picture nominated film to be rewarded, it's missing one crucial thing: a Best Sound Mixing nomination. The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing awards are like the Picture and Director awards. It's extremely difficult for a film to win either one if it's not nominated for the other. It's not a big threat.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST-While this category does not uncommonly award summer/popcorn movies, this one already has the Visual Effects category to win. To be frank, no one really cares about the Sound Editing category. That's probably why you've stopped reading by now. They just use it so that films can say "________ is now an Academy Award Winner" in their promos. Pirates will have that opportunity with another category. No worries.
WILL WIN: Flags of Our Fathers
SHOULD WIN: N/A
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Flags of Our Fathers
2. Apocalypto
3. Letters From Iwo Jima
4. Blood Diamond
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Tomorrow: Best Sound Mixing
Saturday, February 3, 2007
The 1st Annual Oscar Obsession Honors
Best Picture
**Little Miss Sunshine**
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen
United 93
Venus
Bill Condon-Dreamgirls
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine
Guerillmo Del Toro-Pan’s Labyrinth
**Paul Greengrass-United 93**
Martin Scorsese-The Departed
Matt Damon-The Departed
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Departed
Will Ferrell-Stranger than Fiction
**Peter O’Toole-Venus**
Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness
Ivana Baquero-Pan’s Labyrinth
**Helen Mirren-The Queen**
Natalie Portman-V for Vendetta
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Jodie Whittaker-Venus
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
**Steve Carrel-Little Miss Sunshine**
Sergi Lopez-Pan’s Labyrinth
Michael Sheen-The Queen
Adriana Barraza-Babel
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Catherine O’Hara-For Your Consideration
**Maribel Verdu-Pan’s Labyrinth**
Emma Thompson-Stranger than Fiction
For Your Consideration
**Little Miss Sunshine**
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen
Venus
Borat
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
**V for Vendetta**
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Pan’s Labyrinth
3. United 93
4. Venus
5. The Queen
6. Dreamgirls
7. V for Vendetta
8. For Your Consideration
9. The Pursuit of Happyness
10.
Scorsese Takes Directors Guild!
DGA Winners Announced Tonight!
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
POSSIBLE UPSET: Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine (I just watched the movie again today...God do I love it)
DARK HORSE: Alejandro Gonzales Iñaritu-Babel
IF HELL FREEZES OVER: Bill Condon-Dreamgirls
NO CHANCE: Stephen Frears-The Queen

Let's hope so...
DGA
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
POSSIBLE UPSET: Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine (I just watched the movie again today...God do I love it)
DARK HORSE: Alejandro Gonzales Iñaritu-Babel
IF HELL FREEZES OVER: Bill Condon-Dreamgirls
NO CHANCE: Stephen Frears-The Queen