Finally, it's time. Here are my predictions for 2007-
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Babel
The Departed**
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Here's why- 'Letters' didn't get enough publicity. I'm guessing it beat 'Dreamgirls' for that last spot only by a small margin. 'The Queen' is a brilliant character study and doesn't have enough momentum to take the top prize. 'Sunshine' was my favorite of the year, but when it gets down to it, it isn't Oscar material. Sure it won the PGA and SAG...but is the Academy going to honor a comedy? 'Babel' is a HUGE love it-hate it. I loved it. That leaves 'Departed'. 'Departed' won the DGA and the Critic's Choice Awards. For those who say that mob movies can't win Best Picture...look at The Godfather (and part II). Scorsese has Best Director in the bag, and I think that he could just as easily take Picture as well. So, 'Departed' is my pick with 'Babel' and 'Little Miss Sunshine' right behind.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed**
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
The Academy truly has no heart if they give this to Eastwood over Scorsese. He should already have 2 Oscars (Raging Bull and Taxi Driver) and his waaaaay overdue. Of course, that goes without saying. The only upset I would be okay with in this category is Paul Greengrass.
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland**
Whitaker has this in the bag. Should he? No. But, Whitaker gave a really good performance and will easily take this. I really hope Peter O'Toole upsets though. 'Last King' has made Whitaker a bigger icon then he was before. He will get another opportunity to win. O'Toole's career is (sadly) coming to a close soon. Please Academy, give this to Peter O'Toole.
BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen**
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
This is Mirren's. She totally deserves it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine**
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Alan Arkin deserves this. This is the one prediction that I am predicting an upset. Sadly, Eddie Murphy will probably win. But, I'm going to go ahead and predict Arkin.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls**
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Hudson has this. She gave a great performance and her background of being kicked off 'American Idol' will give another reason for the Academy to give it to her. Good for her, excellent film debut. I prefer Adriana Barraza, but there is no stopping Hudson. And I'm okay with that.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine**
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
This is a three way race between 'Babel', 'Sunshine', and 'Queen'. 'Sunshine' won the BAFTA and the WGA. 'Queen' won the Golden Globe. 'Babel' is still a potential winner because there is a large chance it will win BP. 'Sunshine' has the edge though, and this will give the voters the best place to reward the film.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed**
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
First off, I can officially spell Kazakhstan correctly now because I have written it out so many times with that title. Anyway, 'Departed' has this hands down. Even if it doesn't win BP, it will most likely still win this.
And this is where the in-depth predictions end. Here's a straight forward list of my other predictions
BEST FILM EDITING
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children Of Men
The Departed**
United 93
BEST ART/SET DIRECTION
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth**
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Curse Of The Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette**
The Queen
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Black Dahlia
Children Of Men**
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
BEST MAKEUP
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth**
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel**
The Good German
Notes On A Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Cars - ''Our Town''
Dreamgirls - ''Listen''**
Dreamgirls - ''Love You I Do''
Dreamgirls - ''Patience''
An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''
BEST SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls**
Flags Of Our Fathers
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
BEST SOUND EDITING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags Of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima**
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest**
Poseidon
Superman Returns
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cars**
Happy Feet
Monster House
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
After The Wedding (Denmark)
Days Of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives Of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)**
Water (Canada)
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth**
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
I'll put up my Top Ten with honorable mentions, worst film of the year, most overrated film/performance, most underrated film/performance, and my own big eight awards. Enjoy tonight's show!
Sunday, February 25, 2007
What Acting Clips Should They Use?
What are the highlights of the nominated performances that they should show? Here's what I think...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson-And I Am Telling You. Duh.
Rinko Kikuchi-The locker room scene (nobody's ****** her yet)
Cate Blanchett-N/A
Adriana Barraza-The desert scene. Any part.
Abigail Breslin-The "Super Freak" dance or "Grandpa, am I pretty?"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy-"What exactly would you like Jimmy to do for you?"
Jackie Earle Haley-N/A
Alan Arkin-"You're not a loser"
Mark Wahlberg-"I'm the one that gets the job done"
Djimon Hounsou-N/A
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren-"That's how we do things in this country. Quietly and with dignity."
Judi Dench-N/A
Meryl Streep-Enough said.
Kate Winslet-N/A
Penelope Cruz-N/A
BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker-His speech to the crowd
Lenoardo Dicaprio-N/A
Peter O'Toole-When Jodie Whittaker asks "what do you like about me?"
Will Smith-The bathroom scene
Ryan Gosling-N/A
What does everyone else think?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson-And I Am Telling You. Duh.
Rinko Kikuchi-The locker room scene (nobody's ****** her yet)
Cate Blanchett-N/A
Adriana Barraza-The desert scene. Any part.
Abigail Breslin-The "Super Freak" dance or "Grandpa, am I pretty?"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy-"What exactly would you like Jimmy to do for you?"
Jackie Earle Haley-N/A
Alan Arkin-"You're not a loser"
Mark Wahlberg-"I'm the one that gets the job done"
Djimon Hounsou-N/A
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren-"That's how we do things in this country. Quietly and with dignity."
Judi Dench-N/A
Meryl Streep-Enough said.
Kate Winslet-N/A
Penelope Cruz-N/A
BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker-His speech to the crowd
Lenoardo Dicaprio-N/A
Peter O'Toole-When Jodie Whittaker asks "what do you like about me?"
Will Smith-The bathroom scene
Ryan Gosling-N/A
What does everyone else think?
A Look at Best Picture
Today is the day!! Which means that today's category is Best Picture. This is the most competitive race for the top prize in years. The nominees are...
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
I've seen all but Letters.
BABEL-The Golden Globe makes this look really, really possible, and the Academy does love to make itself feel important by giving the prizes to "important" movies, like Babel. But this is a year like no other, and Babel hasn't won any significant precursors except for the Golden Globes, which is an entirely different group from AMPAS. I liked Babel; a lot, as a matter of fact; but I'll still be disappointed and a little surprised if it won.
THE DEPARTED-Everyone is predicting this to win, and I think it very well may. But, according to OscarAddict.com (which, by the way, I will start to be a contributor for this March), Academy members think that Scorsese's crime masterpiece is "too violent." Whatever. Everyone loved this movie that I know of. I still think that Marty will win Best Director. Or I hope that he'll win so much that I think he will. Either way, look out for this one.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-AMPAS loves Eastwood so much that they gave him a Best Picture nomination. That's it. They're not going to let him win when he got no buzz, low box office numbers and when his movie is in another language. Well, if there's one director who can break barriers for the Academy, it's Eastwood. And if there's one year when he can do it, it's this year. Still, it's unlikely.
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-The three major Oscar sites I check (www.everytingoscar.com, www.theoscarigloo.com and www.oscaraddict.com) are all predicting something different. Sweeping the guilds (well, three out of four, and being nominated for the only loss) adds up to a Best Picture win, right? All I know is that I will be overwhelmed if this wins. In a good way. I'm predicting it more with my gut than with my brain (and as the brilliant Stephen Colbert says, "There are more nerve endings in your gut than there are in your brain.")
THE QUEEN-It'll dominate in Best Actress, but nowhere else. It's a damn good movie, but it's the kind that the Academy loves to reward with nominations; not wins. This is really the only Best Picture contender that can't win. But we can't use precedent to judge a year like this. Can we?
WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (but I'll probably go back and forth every 5 minutes)
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Departed
3. Babel
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. The Queen
The best day of the year is here! I'll be posting all day.
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
I've seen all but Letters.
BABEL-The Golden Globe makes this look really, really possible, and the Academy does love to make itself feel important by giving the prizes to "important" movies, like Babel. But this is a year like no other, and Babel hasn't won any significant precursors except for the Golden Globes, which is an entirely different group from AMPAS. I liked Babel; a lot, as a matter of fact; but I'll still be disappointed and a little surprised if it won.
THE DEPARTED-Everyone is predicting this to win, and I think it very well may. But, according to OscarAddict.com (which, by the way, I will start to be a contributor for this March), Academy members think that Scorsese's crime masterpiece is "too violent." Whatever. Everyone loved this movie that I know of. I still think that Marty will win Best Director. Or I hope that he'll win so much that I think he will. Either way, look out for this one.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-AMPAS loves Eastwood so much that they gave him a Best Picture nomination. That's it. They're not going to let him win when he got no buzz, low box office numbers and when his movie is in another language. Well, if there's one director who can break barriers for the Academy, it's Eastwood. And if there's one year when he can do it, it's this year. Still, it's unlikely.
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-The three major Oscar sites I check (www.everytingoscar.com, www.theoscarigloo.com and www.oscaraddict.com) are all predicting something different. Sweeping the guilds (well, three out of four, and being nominated for the only loss) adds up to a Best Picture win, right? All I know is that I will be overwhelmed if this wins. In a good way. I'm predicting it more with my gut than with my brain (and as the brilliant Stephen Colbert says, "There are more nerve endings in your gut than there are in your brain.")
THE QUEEN-It'll dominate in Best Actress, but nowhere else. It's a damn good movie, but it's the kind that the Academy loves to reward with nominations; not wins. This is really the only Best Picture contender that can't win. But we can't use precedent to judge a year like this. Can we?
WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (but I'll probably go back and forth every 5 minutes)
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Departed
3. Babel
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. The Queen
The best day of the year is here! I'll be posting all day.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Final Predictions Tomorrow!
Tomorrow will be CONSTANT blogging. I'll post my Best Picture analaysis, my final predictions and tons of other crap. The best day of the year is almost just 3 hours away!!!
Independent Spirit Award Winners!
Little Miss Sunshine is looking stronger and stronger...
BEST FEATURE
Little Miss Sunshine
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Shareeka Epps-Half Nelson
BEST MALE LEAD
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Frances McDormand-Friends With Money
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!!!!!!!!!!)
BEST SCREENPLAY
Thank You For Smoking (whatever)
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt-Little Miss Sunshine
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Pan's Labyrinth (!)
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Sweet Land
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
The Lives of Others (Pan's wasn't even nominated here, but it was nominated for Best Picture. Wierd...)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Road to Guantanamo
Guess what awards show is in 22 hours?!?
BEST FEATURE
Little Miss Sunshine
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Shareeka Epps-Half Nelson
BEST MALE LEAD
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Frances McDormand-Friends With Money
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!!!!!!!!!!)
BEST SCREENPLAY
Thank You For Smoking (whatever)
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt-Little Miss Sunshine
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Pan's Labyrinth (!)
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Sweet Land
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
The Lives of Others (Pan's wasn't even nominated here, but it was nominated for Best Picture. Wierd...)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Road to Guantanamo
Guess what awards show is in 22 hours?!?
1989 Opening Act
I found this on OscarWatch.com. It's the opening act to the 1989 Academy Awards. Yeech. Campy with a capital C. And A. And M. And P. And Y.
A Look at Best Director
Hmm. There's something happening tomorrow. What was it?
Well, why I try to figure that out, today's category is Best Director. The nominees are...
Alejandro González Iñárritu-Babel
Clint Eastwood-Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears-The Queen
Paul Greengrass-United 93
Martin Scorsese-The Departed
I've seen all of them but Letters. Go me.
INARRITU-In Babel and 21 Grams, he showed us that he can indeed direct a film. But the competition he's up against is just stronger and better known than he is. If he makes two or three more successful films, though, he'll get a statuette. This just isn't his year. Maybe for Best Picture.
EASTWOOD-Yes, the Academy loves Eastwood. But seriously, they're not going to give him three directing Oscars. But, like it or not, they still aren't going to snub Marty again. Right...? Ugh, that gave me a bad image.
FREARS-He deserves some sort of recognition for getting such an amazing performance out of Helen Mirren, but all four of the other nominees directed films that relied on good direction to work out. All of these nominees will probably become Oscar winners at some point. But only one can this year; and it's probably Marty.
GREENGRASS-His chances are a lot better than people think. He beat Marty at the BAFTA's, and United 93 is a showcase of the director. If his film got a Best Picture nomination, I would be predicting him in a heartbeat, but because no one has won Best Director without a BP nod since 1929, I just can't. But this isn't a year like any other. And the Academy does love snubbing Scorsese...
SCORSESE-People are saying that Scorsese will win because the Academy feels like they need to give him something for his career. But, a) he did a great job with The Departed; he was second best only to Greengrass, and b) why not give a career award? I mean, what is an Academy Award if not just a title for an accomplished person in Hollywood? Everyone is on Marty's side; even his fellow nominees. AMPAS just can't ignore that.
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Scorsese
2. Greengrass (I'll take the risk)
3. Eastwood
4. Iñárritu
5. Frears
Tomorrow: Best Picture (OMG! NOW I REMEMBER WHAT TOMORROW IS!)
Well, why I try to figure that out, today's category is Best Director. The nominees are...
Alejandro González Iñárritu-Babel
Clint Eastwood-Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears-The Queen
Paul Greengrass-United 93
Martin Scorsese-The Departed
I've seen all of them but Letters. Go me.
INARRITU-In Babel and 21 Grams, he showed us that he can indeed direct a film. But the competition he's up against is just stronger and better known than he is. If he makes two or three more successful films, though, he'll get a statuette. This just isn't his year. Maybe for Best Picture.
EASTWOOD-Yes, the Academy loves Eastwood. But seriously, they're not going to give him three directing Oscars. But, like it or not, they still aren't going to snub Marty again. Right...? Ugh, that gave me a bad image.
FREARS-He deserves some sort of recognition for getting such an amazing performance out of Helen Mirren, but all four of the other nominees directed films that relied on good direction to work out. All of these nominees will probably become Oscar winners at some point. But only one can this year; and it's probably Marty.
GREENGRASS-His chances are a lot better than people think. He beat Marty at the BAFTA's, and United 93 is a showcase of the director. If his film got a Best Picture nomination, I would be predicting him in a heartbeat, but because no one has won Best Director without a BP nod since 1929, I just can't. But this isn't a year like any other. And the Academy does love snubbing Scorsese...
SCORSESE-People are saying that Scorsese will win because the Academy feels like they need to give him something for his career. But, a) he did a great job with The Departed; he was second best only to Greengrass, and b) why not give a career award? I mean, what is an Academy Award if not just a title for an accomplished person in Hollywood? Everyone is on Marty's side; even his fellow nominees. AMPAS just can't ignore that.
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Scorsese
2. Greengrass (I'll take the risk)
3. Eastwood
4. Iñárritu
5. Frears
Tomorrow: Best Picture (OMG! NOW I REMEMBER WHAT TOMORROW IS!)
Final Independent Spirit Awards Prediction
Whoa, the Independent Spirit Awards are today. That was quick. I'm not going to predict every category, but for Best Feature, I predict Little Miss Sunshine, alt. Pan's Labyrinth.
Football Fans Discussing Best Actress
Who will win Best Actress (pretend that Helen Mirren isn't a lock)? Well, these football fans think they know. Yeech. It gets ugly.
Translation: I want it to be tomorrow soooo much.
Translation: I want it to be tomorrow soooo much.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Final Oscar winner predictions
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Alejandro Gonzàlez Inàrritu - Babel
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Martin Scorsese - The Departed*
Best Actor In A Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit Of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland*
Best Actress In A Leading Role
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen*
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls*
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls*
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children Of Men
The Departed*
Little Children
Notes On A Scandal
Best Original Screenplay
Babel*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Best Film Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children Of Men
The Departed*
United 93
Best Art Direction-Set Decoration
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
Best Costume Design
Curse Of The Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette*
The Queen
Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia
Children Of Men*
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth*
Best Original Score
Babel*
The Good German
Notes On A Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Best Original Song
Cars - ''Our Town''
Dreamgirls - ''Listen''*
Dreamgirls - ''Love You I Do''
Dreamgirls - ''Patience''
An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''
Best Sound Mixing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags Of Our Fathers*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Effects Editing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags Of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Visual Effects
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns*
Best Animated Feature Film
Cars*
Happy Feet
Monster House
Best Foreign Language Film
After The Wedding (Denmark)
Days Of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives Of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)*
Water (Canada)
Best Documentary Feature Film
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth*
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
Babel
The Departed*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Alejandro Gonzàlez Inàrritu - Babel
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Martin Scorsese - The Departed*
Best Actor In A Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit Of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland*
Best Actress In A Leading Role
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen*
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls*
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls*
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children Of Men
The Departed*
Little Children
Notes On A Scandal
Best Original Screenplay
Babel*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Best Film Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children Of Men
The Departed*
United 93
Best Art Direction-Set Decoration
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
Best Costume Design
Curse Of The Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette*
The Queen
Best Cinematography
The Black Dahlia
Children Of Men*
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth*
Best Original Score
Babel*
The Good German
Notes On A Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Best Original Song
Cars - ''Our Town''
Dreamgirls - ''Listen''*
Dreamgirls - ''Love You I Do''
Dreamgirls - ''Patience''
An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''
Best Sound Mixing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags Of Our Fathers*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Effects Editing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags Of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Visual Effects
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns*
Best Animated Feature Film
Cars*
Happy Feet
Monster House
Best Foreign Language Film
After The Wedding (Denmark)
Days Of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives Of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)*
Water (Canada)
Best Documentary Feature Film
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth*
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
A Look at Best Actor
Today's category is Best Actor, the most...hmm...what's the word?...race. The nominees are...
Leonardo DiCaprio-Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole-Venus
Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
I've seen Venus, Happyness and Last King. One by one...
DICAPRIO-No one was predicting him for THIS, but now they're saying he's the most likely upset. That might be true. Sorta. It's clear that the Academy loved the film, but enough to have it surprise? Possibly. He just hasn't won any notable precursors. It's looking like Whitaker's race to lose.
GOSLING-Everyone loves the film, specifically his performance, but underexposure will be a major factor. He should just enjoy being nominated-it's not even a race that's worth being a part of. It's so unexciting.
O'TOOLE-He deserves to win not only for his career, but for this performance. He is outstanding as Maurice and the film itself is fantastic. He should have been nominated in Musical/Comedy at the Globes, the film is NOT a drama. If people would just watch the movie he'd be the frontrunner. Sadly, he won't win. Or will he...? No.
SMITH-This performance was waaay better than I thought it would be, as was the film. He has something like a 5% chance, but who really knows? I mean, there has to be some surprise this year (but for this category, that surprise would be O'Toole or DiCaprio).
WHITAKER-I loved the movie, and I think that Forest Whitaker is definitely worthy of a nomination, but certainly not a win. He'd be something like third, with Peter O'Toole and Will Smith coming before him. But, winning just about every precursor has to add up to something, which, for him, will be a win. But the movie hasn't been very popular (but if it were judged by how many people saw the movie, Smith would dominate). He's more the frontrunner by default than by deserving it.
WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
SHOULD WIN: Peter O'Toole-Venus
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Whitaker
2. O'Toole
3. DiCaprio
4. Smith
5. Gosling
Tomorrow: Best Director
Leonardo DiCaprio-Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole-Venus
Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
I've seen Venus, Happyness and Last King. One by one...
DICAPRIO-No one was predicting him for THIS, but now they're saying he's the most likely upset. That might be true. Sorta. It's clear that the Academy loved the film, but enough to have it surprise? Possibly. He just hasn't won any notable precursors. It's looking like Whitaker's race to lose.
GOSLING-Everyone loves the film, specifically his performance, but underexposure will be a major factor. He should just enjoy being nominated-it's not even a race that's worth being a part of. It's so unexciting.
O'TOOLE-He deserves to win not only for his career, but for this performance. He is outstanding as Maurice and the film itself is fantastic. He should have been nominated in Musical/Comedy at the Globes, the film is NOT a drama. If people would just watch the movie he'd be the frontrunner. Sadly, he won't win. Or will he...? No.
SMITH-This performance was waaay better than I thought it would be, as was the film. He has something like a 5% chance, but who really knows? I mean, there has to be some surprise this year (but for this category, that surprise would be O'Toole or DiCaprio).
WHITAKER-I loved the movie, and I think that Forest Whitaker is definitely worthy of a nomination, but certainly not a win. He'd be something like third, with Peter O'Toole and Will Smith coming before him. But, winning just about every precursor has to add up to something, which, for him, will be a win. But the movie hasn't been very popular (but if it were judged by how many people saw the movie, Smith would dominate). He's more the frontrunner by default than by deserving it.
WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
SHOULD WIN: Peter O'Toole-Venus
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Whitaker
2. O'Toole
3. DiCaprio
4. Smith
5. Gosling
Tomorrow: Best Director
A Change in the Predix
I'm changing my prediction in Best Sound Editing to Letters From Iwo Jima. Apparently it won the Sound Editor's Guild, which I'd assume is like the the Director's, Writer's, Producer's and Actor's Guilds.
Ugh, I want it to be Sunday sooo much. But until then, I leave you with Michael Moore's (in?)famous Oscar speech.
Heh. Now they'd be cheering.
Ugh, I want it to be Sunday sooo much. But until then, I leave you with Michael Moore's (in?)famous Oscar speech.
Heh. Now they'd be cheering.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The Yearly Acting Lock of the 21st Century
Every year at the Oscars from 2000, there's always one lock in one of the acting categories. Have you noticed that? Here's what they are (in my own opinion, of course). Anyways...
2006-Helen Mirren-The Queen (or so we can assume)
2005-Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote
2004-Jamie Foxx-Ray
2003-Charlize Theron-Monster
2002-Nicole Kidman-The Hours (eh, this might be an exception to the rule. Wasn't it awesome when Adrien Brody won this year? I'd love to see that happen to Arkin in Best Supporting Actor on Sunday)
2001-Jennifer Connelly-A Beautiful Mind
2000-Julia Roberts-Erin Brockovich
So, why are there only total locks in the 21st century? Because of the internet, of course. Buzz is more effective than some people give it credit for. And, isn't it worth pointing out that, as the years continue, the lock gets stronger and stronger (except for maybe in 2005/2004). Makes you think, huh?
In other words, I'm really bored and I really want it to be Sunday. Luckily, I've rented The Departed, Venus, Flags of Our Fathers, An Invonvenient Truth and The Illusionist to distract myself until then.
2006-Helen Mirren-The Queen (or so we can assume)
2005-Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote
2004-Jamie Foxx-Ray
2003-Charlize Theron-Monster
2002-Nicole Kidman-The Hours (eh, this might be an exception to the rule. Wasn't it awesome when Adrien Brody won this year? I'd love to see that happen to Arkin in Best Supporting Actor on Sunday)
2001-Jennifer Connelly-A Beautiful Mind
2000-Julia Roberts-Erin Brockovich
So, why are there only total locks in the 21st century? Because of the internet, of course. Buzz is more effective than some people give it credit for. And, isn't it worth pointing out that, as the years continue, the lock gets stronger and stronger (except for maybe in 2005/2004). Makes you think, huh?
In other words, I'm really bored and I really want it to be Sunday. Luckily, I've rented The Departed, Venus, Flags of Our Fathers, An Invonvenient Truth and The Illusionist to distract myself until then.
A Look at Best Actress
Today's category is Best Actress, the easiest to predict category of the year. The nominees are...
Penelope Cruz-Volver
Judi Dench-Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren-The Queen
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet-Little Children
I've seen Prada and The Queen. Yawn.
CRUZ-I've been predicting her as a nominee for a long time, along with everyone. She really doesn't stand a chance. Well, then again, no one really stands a chance except Mirren. She should be glad to be nominated; especially when her movie was snubbed for Foriegn Langauge Film.
DENCH-The only thing that could possibly upset Mirren. Well, Hell would have to freeze over first, but still. She's won ONE precursor (a British one...I forget what it's called). Mirren has this race locked up. But the Academy loves Dench, so they'll probably give her a second Oscar at some point. But certianly not here.
MIRREN-She's been called the surest thing since Titanic. The surest thing since Lord of the Rings. The surest thing since Charlize Theron. The surest thing since Jamie Foxx. Either way, she's a sure thing (I'd say she's the surest thing since...well...Helen Mirren). She has everything for her and nothing against her. They might as well do this over the phone.
STREEP-She'll get a third Oscar at some point, but the nomination is her reward. I mean, who else could find an Oscar nomination in a summer movie about fashion other than Meryl? Maybe Dench. Anyways, she'll get a third one someday. But not this year, and definetley not for this performance.
WINSLET-It's already amazing that she survived the buzz. She is an Academy favorite, and she'll get her Oscar one day. In the mean time, she can brag that she has 5 nominations at 31 years of age. Jeez.
WILL WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Mirren
2. Mirren
3. Mirren
4. Mirren
5. Mirren
Okay, fine.
1. Mirren
2. Dench
3. Streep
4. Winslet
5. Cruz
Tomorrow: Best Actor
Penelope Cruz-Volver
Judi Dench-Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren-The Queen
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet-Little Children
I've seen Prada and The Queen. Yawn.
CRUZ-I've been predicting her as a nominee for a long time, along with everyone. She really doesn't stand a chance. Well, then again, no one really stands a chance except Mirren. She should be glad to be nominated; especially when her movie was snubbed for Foriegn Langauge Film.
DENCH-The only thing that could possibly upset Mirren. Well, Hell would have to freeze over first, but still. She's won ONE precursor (a British one...I forget what it's called). Mirren has this race locked up. But the Academy loves Dench, so they'll probably give her a second Oscar at some point. But certianly not here.
MIRREN-She's been called the surest thing since Titanic. The surest thing since Lord of the Rings. The surest thing since Charlize Theron. The surest thing since Jamie Foxx. Either way, she's a sure thing (I'd say she's the surest thing since...well...Helen Mirren). She has everything for her and nothing against her. They might as well do this over the phone.
STREEP-She'll get a third Oscar at some point, but the nomination is her reward. I mean, who else could find an Oscar nomination in a summer movie about fashion other than Meryl? Maybe Dench. Anyways, she'll get a third one someday. But not this year, and definetley not for this performance.
WINSLET-It's already amazing that she survived the buzz. She is an Academy favorite, and she'll get her Oscar one day. In the mean time, she can brag that she has 5 nominations at 31 years of age. Jeez.
WILL WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Mirren
2. Mirren
3. Mirren
4. Mirren
5. Mirren
Okay, fine.
1. Mirren
2. Dench
3. Streep
4. Winslet
5. Cruz
Tomorrow: Best Actor
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
A Look at Best Supporting Actor
Today's category is Best Supporting Actor, the year's most competitive category. The nominees are....
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley-Little Children
Djimon Hounsou-Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg-The Departed
I've seen three out of five (LMS, Dreamgirls and The Departed). And one by one we go...
ARKIN-I'm praying that he will upset so much that I'm almost predicting it. While he is the second most likely out of this category, Murphy is gonna take it. We're only calling it the "most competitive category" because it doesn't seem like anyone really loves Murphy in Dreamgirls, but he's won all the precursors, but does anyone else notice that he isn't really happy in his acceptance speeches? But, he does have the BAFTA (even though Murphy wasn't nominated there). And if he wins, LMS will more than likely take BP.
HALEY-He has critics on his side, but the film had very little exposure. Everyone that saw it seemed to like it enough, but there just isn't any buzz about this--or Winslet's, really--performance. He'll take critical praise and this nomination as the reward. Besides, he lost the BAFTA to Arkin. But, then again, it is a very competitive race. Sorta.
HOUNSOU-The Academy apparently loved this movie, but precursor support and critical attention will be key in this race, and Hounsou falls flat in that category. Also, in categories this odd, AMPAS usually doesn't know what to do and gives it to the frontrunner while they find out what the hell happened. Sorry.
MURPHY-He's hit the three of four of the major precursors-BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG, only losing the BAFTA to Arkin, which puts him in first place automatically. But, I just can't see the presenter reading his name from the envelope. OK, I can, but it just seems like it'd be anticlimactic. And, contrary to popular belief, no. Norbit will have no effect on him whatsoever. Jeez.
WAHLBERG-I predicted him to be nominated. And only to be nominated. Buzz is making it seem possible, but when put up against three neck-in-neck performances, there isn't room for a fourth. But he'll win someday for something. Or at least I hope.
WILL WIN: Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Murphy
2. Arkin
3. Haley
4. Wahlberg
5. Hounsou
Tomorrow: Best Way to Honor Helen Mirren. I mean, Best Actress
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley-Little Children
Djimon Hounsou-Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg-The Departed
I've seen three out of five (LMS, Dreamgirls and The Departed). And one by one we go...
ARKIN-I'm praying that he will upset so much that I'm almost predicting it. While he is the second most likely out of this category, Murphy is gonna take it. We're only calling it the "most competitive category" because it doesn't seem like anyone really loves Murphy in Dreamgirls, but he's won all the precursors, but does anyone else notice that he isn't really happy in his acceptance speeches? But, he does have the BAFTA (even though Murphy wasn't nominated there). And if he wins, LMS will more than likely take BP.
HALEY-He has critics on his side, but the film had very little exposure. Everyone that saw it seemed to like it enough, but there just isn't any buzz about this--or Winslet's, really--performance. He'll take critical praise and this nomination as the reward. Besides, he lost the BAFTA to Arkin. But, then again, it is a very competitive race. Sorta.
HOUNSOU-The Academy apparently loved this movie, but precursor support and critical attention will be key in this race, and Hounsou falls flat in that category. Also, in categories this odd, AMPAS usually doesn't know what to do and gives it to the frontrunner while they find out what the hell happened. Sorry.
MURPHY-He's hit the three of four of the major precursors-BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG, only losing the BAFTA to Arkin, which puts him in first place automatically. But, I just can't see the presenter reading his name from the envelope. OK, I can, but it just seems like it'd be anticlimactic. And, contrary to popular belief, no. Norbit will have no effect on him whatsoever. Jeez.
WAHLBERG-I predicted him to be nominated. And only to be nominated. Buzz is making it seem possible, but when put up against three neck-in-neck performances, there isn't room for a fourth. But he'll win someday for something. Or at least I hope.
WILL WIN: Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Murphy
2. Arkin
3. Haley
4. Wahlberg
5. Hounsou
Tomorrow: Best Way to Honor Helen Mirren. I mean, Best Actress
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
A Look at Best Supporting Actress
The year's most timid category, today we are doing Best Supporting Actress. The nominees are...
Adriana Barraza-Babel
Cate Blanchett-Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi-Babel
I've seen all but Notes on a Scandal (and I predicted this category 100% right! Yay).
BARRAZA-My favorite performance out of this category. Barraza was very down to earth and timid in an extremely difficult role. She (or Rinko) would probably be able to pull off a win if they were the only ones from Babel nominated. Votes will split like crazy now.
BLANCHETT-She would be a LOCK if she didn't just win. Normally I would put her second, but I can't see very many--if any--Academy members voting for her when she just won. Unless they want to make up for snubbing her for Elizabeth (again). This is off the subject, but isn't it weird that Judi Dench, who won the Oscar in 1998 for playing Queen Elizabeth II while she was shut out for playing the same character, are now both nominated for the same movie, but this time Blanchett is supporting and Dench is lead. I've just been thinking about that since I first heard about this movie. Moving on...
BRESLIN-This is the year of first-time nominees. Abigail Breslin is the only possible upset, if you ask me. It all comes down to the precursors, which Hudson has conquered in. And I really don't think she deserves it; not because she wasn't great in it, but because I feel awkward giving kids this young Oscars. Seems like the kind of thing that would scar them for life (but Tatum O'Neil and Anna Paquin are doing alright, so I dunno.)
HUDSON-Considering that she's won virtually every precursor and all of the other nominees are improbable (Barazza and Kikuchi will split votes, Blanchett won too recently and Breslin didn't get nominated for Golden Globe), she'll take this one in a cakewalk (deservingly, in most senses of the word).
KIKUCHI-She would have a better chance than Barazza because she opened to much more buzz, but now that they're both nominated it will be vote splitting, vote splitting, vote splitting. Also, Barazza has taken a great deal of the buzz to make it 50:50.
WILL WIN: Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Adriana Barazza-Babel
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Hudson
2. Breslin
3. Blanchett
4. Kikuchi
5. Barazza
Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor
Adriana Barraza-Babel
Cate Blanchett-Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi-Babel
I've seen all but Notes on a Scandal (and I predicted this category 100% right! Yay).
BARRAZA-My favorite performance out of this category. Barraza was very down to earth and timid in an extremely difficult role. She (or Rinko) would probably be able to pull off a win if they were the only ones from Babel nominated. Votes will split like crazy now.
BLANCHETT-She would be a LOCK if she didn't just win. Normally I would put her second, but I can't see very many--if any--Academy members voting for her when she just won. Unless they want to make up for snubbing her for Elizabeth (again). This is off the subject, but isn't it weird that Judi Dench, who won the Oscar in 1998 for playing Queen Elizabeth II while she was shut out for playing the same character, are now both nominated for the same movie, but this time Blanchett is supporting and Dench is lead. I've just been thinking about that since I first heard about this movie. Moving on...
BRESLIN-This is the year of first-time nominees. Abigail Breslin is the only possible upset, if you ask me. It all comes down to the precursors, which Hudson has conquered in. And I really don't think she deserves it; not because she wasn't great in it, but because I feel awkward giving kids this young Oscars. Seems like the kind of thing that would scar them for life (but Tatum O'Neil and Anna Paquin are doing alright, so I dunno.)
HUDSON-Considering that she's won virtually every precursor and all of the other nominees are improbable (Barazza and Kikuchi will split votes, Blanchett won too recently and Breslin didn't get nominated for Golden Globe), she'll take this one in a cakewalk (deservingly, in most senses of the word).
KIKUCHI-She would have a better chance than Barazza because she opened to much more buzz, but now that they're both nominated it will be vote splitting, vote splitting, vote splitting. Also, Barazza has taken a great deal of the buzz to make it 50:50.
WILL WIN: Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Adriana Barazza-Babel
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Hudson
2. Breslin
3. Blanchett
4. Kikuchi
5. Barazza
Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor
Monday, February 19, 2007
A Look at Best Original Screenplay
Today's category is the always under-appreciated Best Original Screenplay category. The nominees are...
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
I've seen all but Letters. And all of them deserve to be nominated.
BABEL-I suppose this could upset if voters go crazy over Babel, but it hasn't won any significant precursors for the screenplay itself that secure its spot. But, the buzz and overall baitiness of Babel could make it a Best Original Screenplay winner. How I see it? Babel will be an all-or-nothing thing.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-Apparently AMPAS doesn't consider letters and diaries as a base for a film because they haven't been published, thus they aren't "Adapted From Previously Published Material", but I seriously doubt that Letters will win any significant awards, if any at all. It really only got its praise because Eastwood's name was on it.
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-Not only did it not win at the Golden Globes, but it wasn't even nominated. So? The Hollywood Foreign Press and The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are two totally different organizations with totally different members. And, because almost every, if not all, Academy members are members of one of the guilds, and this took the WGA, it's practically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better reason.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-This must have been the Academy's way of making up for not having room in Best Director for Del Toro (come on...The Queen was a great movie, but Stephen Frears' direction wasn't what made it great). Because it wasn't going to win there, it won't win here either, unfortunately.
THE QUEEN-As I said in Little Miss Sunshine's analysis, success at the Golden Globes only goes so far. Most people are putting this in second place or even first, when all evidence points to Little Miss Sunshine and Babel way before this.
WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (with Pan's as a CLOSE second)
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. Pan's Labyrinth
Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
I've seen all but Letters. And all of them deserve to be nominated.
BABEL-I suppose this could upset if voters go crazy over Babel, but it hasn't won any significant precursors for the screenplay itself that secure its spot. But, the buzz and overall baitiness of Babel could make it a Best Original Screenplay winner. How I see it? Babel will be an all-or-nothing thing.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-Apparently AMPAS doesn't consider letters and diaries as a base for a film because they haven't been published, thus they aren't "Adapted From Previously Published Material", but I seriously doubt that Letters will win any significant awards, if any at all. It really only got its praise because Eastwood's name was on it.
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-Not only did it not win at the Golden Globes, but it wasn't even nominated. So? The Hollywood Foreign Press and The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are two totally different organizations with totally different members. And, because almost every, if not all, Academy members are members of one of the guilds, and this took the WGA, it's practically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better reason.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-This must have been the Academy's way of making up for not having room in Best Director for Del Toro (come on...The Queen was a great movie, but Stephen Frears' direction wasn't what made it great). Because it wasn't going to win there, it won't win here either, unfortunately.
THE QUEEN-As I said in Little Miss Sunshine's analysis, success at the Golden Globes only goes so far. Most people are putting this in second place or even first, when all evidence points to Little Miss Sunshine and Babel way before this.
WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (with Pan's as a CLOSE second)
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. Pan's Labyrinth
Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress
Sunday, February 18, 2007
A Trip Down Memory Lane...
Now that the big show is just a week away, I thought it would be a good time to reflect on what I predicted at the beginning of this race. Luckily, I found my predix from late March. Here we go...
BEST PICTURE
Dreamgirls-This seems to be the frontrunner in just about everything. The Academy does love musicals as of late (Chicago, Moulin Rogue!), but something tells me this won’t make it to the end, even with the early teasers and December release…
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, Little Children-After nominations for “Sense and Sensibility,” “Titanic,” “Iris” and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” she should finally get the Oscar she’s been longing for.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Departed-I guess “The Departed” has to be nominated somewhere for something. This seems like a nice category to get attention.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (I didn't have comments on the screenplays)
Babel
Goya’s Ghosts
The Science of Sleep
The Good Shepard
Stranger than Fiction
Makes you feel nostalgic, huh? God I want it to be the 25th.
BEST PICTURE
Dreamgirls-This seems to be the frontrunner in just about everything. The Academy does love musicals as of late (Chicago, Moulin Rogue!), but something tells me this won’t make it to the end, even with the early teasers and December release…
IN THE RUNNING
Marie-Antoinette-A period film, a female-lead and visual stunners point right to last year’s “Memoirs of a Geisha.” It’s all techs and, possibly, leading actress for this one.
Current Comments: Heh. I was somehow under the impression that The Departed was a comedy. That was the only one on the list that got the nod.
BEST DIRECTORRobert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion-A frontrunner for a nomination, but I think his dislike of the Academy will make his Lifetime Achievement Award his only one.
Todd Field, Little Children-The Best Picture nod is only to support Winslet, and New Line Cinema hasn’t been the most promising studio lately…
BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Babel-It has to be one amazing performance, because he’s not exactly Oscar bait.
Guy Pearce, Factory Girl-Another film I know nothing about, and am only basing because of the feminine performance. However, with Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s sweep, his chances are looking lesser and lesser.
BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, Little Children-After nominations for “Sense and Sensibility,” “Titanic,” “Iris” and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” she should finally get the Oscar she’s been longing for.
Beyonce Knowles, Dreamgirls-Okay. Beyonce has a lot of work to do to get into the race. For me, she’ll only be nominated if she clean-sweeps every single precursor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Departed-I guess “The Departed” has to be nominated somewhere for something. This seems like a nice category to get attention.
Paul Bettany, The DaVinci Code-The character is complex and human enough to earn a nomination. Besides, we have to give “The DaVinci Code” a little recognition. I’m not saying that summer movies are always anti-Oscar (remember the “Crash” shocker only a little more than a week ago?).
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls-I’ve always had a feeling that Eddie Murphy would win an Oscar someday. This is a beloved role in an Oscar-friendly film. Quite possible.
Current Comments: Hey, I was right about Supp. Actor being the most competetive category!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSAnnette Bening, Running with Scissors-At this point, there is no doubt that she will finally receive her Oscar. That is, unless the role is leading. Then it’s a fierce race between her and Winslet.
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls-I’m probably the only Oscar follower at this point that isn’t going crazy over “Dreamgirls.” Does anyone remember that Jennifer is an American Idol finalist and that she’s never been in a major film before? She holds the same fate as Beyonce.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (I didn't have comments on the screenplays)
Babel
Goya’s Ghosts
The Science of Sleep
The Good Shepard
Stranger than Fiction
For Your Consideration
Breaking and Entering
WTC
The Departed
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Flags of our Fathers
Fur
Notes on a Scandal
The DaVinci Code
Marie-Antoinette
Makes you feel nostalgic, huh? God I want it to be the 25th.
A Look at Best Adapted Screenplay
We start the Big 8 today, which means...
JUST ONE MORE WEEK UNTIL OSCAR NIGHT!!
Today's Category is Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are...
Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
I've seen Borat and The Departed. And one by one we go...
BORAT-Eh, it's really unlikely. Most of it is improv/unscripted and there really isn't a story to it all. There are really only one character, Borat of course, that they develop. I was really surprised that it got nominated, not only because it is far from the Academy's cup of tea, but also because I found it so vastly overrated. The nomination is, and always will be, its reward.
CHILDREN OF MEN-If it got a Best Picture nomination then I'd probably be predicting it, but the buzz was too last minute for it to do any significant damage. All it will do is take votes away from the frontrunner, but the frontrunner will still come out with the plurality. But, nonetheless, this does have an outside chance of winning. A very outside chance, but still a chance.
THE DEPARTED-Being the only BP nominee in this category (who would have thought that the Academy would go original this year?), it is the overwhelming favorite. I suppose Children of Men or Little Children (heh) could upset, but I seriously doubt it. It's almost--ALMOST--The Departed's to lose.
LITTLE CHILDREN-Remember the days when Kate Winslet was the frontrunner for Best Actress? Remember when people were predicting this for Best Picture? I don't have anything witty to follow that up with, I'm just remembering. The book is universally loved, but the movie had very little exposure. Is that to say that it couldn't pull off the upset? No. Well, yes, actually. Moving on...
NOTES ON A SCANDAL-This is pure Patrick Marber material; controversial subject matter, sexual content and a hard "R" rating. But, what really drives Notes on a Scandal (if I understand correctly) is the performances by its stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett. They are what is being recognized, rather than the screenplay or movie itself.
WILL WIN: The Departed
SHOULD WIN: The Departed
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. The Departed
2. Children of Men
3. Little Children
4. Notes on a Scandal
5. Borat
Tomorrow: Best Original Screenplay
JUST ONE MORE WEEK UNTIL OSCAR NIGHT!!
Today's Category is Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are...
Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
I've seen Borat and The Departed. And one by one we go...
BORAT-Eh, it's really unlikely. Most of it is improv/unscripted and there really isn't a story to it all. There are really only one character, Borat of course, that they develop. I was really surprised that it got nominated, not only because it is far from the Academy's cup of tea, but also because I found it so vastly overrated. The nomination is, and always will be, its reward.
CHILDREN OF MEN-If it got a Best Picture nomination then I'd probably be predicting it, but the buzz was too last minute for it to do any significant damage. All it will do is take votes away from the frontrunner, but the frontrunner will still come out with the plurality. But, nonetheless, this does have an outside chance of winning. A very outside chance, but still a chance.
THE DEPARTED-Being the only BP nominee in this category (who would have thought that the Academy would go original this year?), it is the overwhelming favorite. I suppose Children of Men or Little Children (heh) could upset, but I seriously doubt it. It's almost--ALMOST--The Departed's to lose.
LITTLE CHILDREN-Remember the days when Kate Winslet was the frontrunner for Best Actress? Remember when people were predicting this for Best Picture? I don't have anything witty to follow that up with, I'm just remembering. The book is universally loved, but the movie had very little exposure. Is that to say that it couldn't pull off the upset? No. Well, yes, actually. Moving on...
NOTES ON A SCANDAL-This is pure Patrick Marber material; controversial subject matter, sexual content and a hard "R" rating. But, what really drives Notes on a Scandal (if I understand correctly) is the performances by its stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett. They are what is being recognized, rather than the screenplay or movie itself.
WILL WIN: The Departed
SHOULD WIN: The Departed
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. The Departed
2. Children of Men
3. Little Children
4. Notes on a Scandal
5. Borat
Tomorrow: Best Original Screenplay
Saturday, February 17, 2007
A Look at Best Foreign Language Film
I just saw Pan's Labyrinth. Oh. My. God. That is not only the best movie of the year (okay, LMS still has that title TECHINCALLY, but it's really a tie), but maybe one of the best movies I've EVER seen. Now, on to Foreign Language Film. The nominees are...
After the Wedding, Denmark
Days of Glory, Algeria
The Lives of Others, Germany
Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
Water, Canada
I've only seen Pan's. But that's enough...
AFTER THE WEDDING-Probably the least likely of all the nominees because, for one, Denmark rarely, if ever, wins. Secondly, it was only released in a few theatres, and finally, um, NO ONE'S HEARD OF IT. Don't worry.
DAYS OF GLORY-See above.
THE LIVES OF OTHERS-This is the biggest threat to Pan's. It received the raves, but it didn't get the exposure--or the amount of nominations--Pan's did. Still, with major critical support, it could pull off the upset. The problem is that Pan's has even more critical support. But, in any other year, this would be a lock.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-Apporaching lock territory, in case it wasn't already there. The fact that it received other nominations, including an ever important Screenplay nod, as well as some Best Picture and Best Director buzz, it's basically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better film. Sigh.
WATER-See After the Wedding.
WILL WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
SHOULD WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Pan's Labyrinth
2. The Lives of Others
3. Water
4. Days of Glory
5. After the Wedding
Tomorrow: Best Adapted Screenplay (we're starting the Big 8!!!)
After the Wedding, Denmark
Days of Glory, Algeria
The Lives of Others, Germany
Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
Water, Canada
I've only seen Pan's. But that's enough...
AFTER THE WEDDING-Probably the least likely of all the nominees because, for one, Denmark rarely, if ever, wins. Secondly, it was only released in a few theatres, and finally, um, NO ONE'S HEARD OF IT. Don't worry.
DAYS OF GLORY-See above.
THE LIVES OF OTHERS-This is the biggest threat to Pan's. It received the raves, but it didn't get the exposure--or the amount of nominations--Pan's did. Still, with major critical support, it could pull off the upset. The problem is that Pan's has even more critical support. But, in any other year, this would be a lock.
PAN'S LABYRINTH-Apporaching lock territory, in case it wasn't already there. The fact that it received other nominations, including an ever important Screenplay nod, as well as some Best Picture and Best Director buzz, it's basically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better film. Sigh.
WATER-See After the Wedding.
WILL WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
SHOULD WIN: Pan's Labyrinth
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Pan's Labyrinth
2. The Lives of Others
3. Water
4. Days of Glory
5. After the Wedding
Tomorrow: Best Adapted Screenplay (we're starting the Big 8!!!)
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