My Absolutely, Totally, 200%, Completely Final Predix

This is my most important post of the year: the final predix. I am not allowing myself to change ANY of these. At all. Red for who WILL win. Blue for the runner-up. Underline for who SHOULD win. Here we go...

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Chalrie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (No Should Win Applicable)
12
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Mongol
Katyn

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (No Should Win Applicable)
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Darkside
War/Dance

BEST FILM EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Raise it Up” – August Rush
“Happy Working Song” – Enchanted
“So Close” – Enchanted
“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted
“Falling Slowly” – Once

BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 to Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

BEST MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT (No Should Win Applicable)
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Meme les Pigeones vont au Paradis
My Love
Peter and the Wolf

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT (No Should Win Applicable)
At Night
The Substitute
Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argenti
The Tonto Woman

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT (No Should Win Applicable)
Freeheld
La Corona
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother

A Look at Best Director

The nominees are...

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I'VE SEEN: 5/5. Yay me.
I PREDICTED: 3/5. I had Sean Penn and Joe Wright in place of Tony Gilroy and Jason Reitman. Turns out I expected Atonement to get unanticipated love in the wrong category.

ANDERSON-Seeing him win would make me very happy, but this just isn't his year. He'll probably get it someday.


COENS-Having won every valuable precursor (unless you count the GG...I don't), the Coen brothers are the odds on favorite for sure. They're really the only logical prediction at this point.

GILROY-A decent directorial effort, but he really stands no chance.

REITMAN-A highly underrated effort that I'm thrilled the Academy recognized. However, considering that just about no one expected him to get in, all this nomination does is make Juno look like a more legitimate contender in Best Actress.

SCHNABEL-Don't count him out as a HUGE upset just yet, but without a BP nod for his film, his chances are very, very slim.

WILL WIN: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
2. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
3. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
4. Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
5. Jason Reitman - Juno

TOMORROW: Best Picture (it's almost here...)

Joel and Ethan Coen win DGA

Winning for No Country for Old Men, the Coens have become a further lock for Best Director.

"Oh, we get two of them," Ethan Coen said as he and brother Joel were presented with their trophies for outstanding feature film achievement."

Thoughts?

No Country for Old Men: Oscar Bound?

One of my favorite film critics, Emanuel Levy, who almost always agrees with other critics, has given "No Country for Old Men" a glowing review, after seeing it at the Cannes Film Festival (he also wasn't crazy about My Blueberry Nights. Disappointing...). It can be seen here. The question is: will this turn out to be a contender? Let's see...


PRO: Cormac McCarthy, who wrote the book the film is based on, just won the Pulitzer Prize for his brilliant novel The Road.
CON: That may mean that people want to see more of The Road than of No Country for Old Men.

PRO: The brilliant Cohen brothers are back, with what looks like a black comedy with a Fargo feel to it.
CON: They've been repeatedly snubbed for everything but Fargo.

PRO: This year, the spotlight is on Cannes more than it's ever been berfore. If this does well at the festival, it could do well elsewhere, too.
CON: There are only a handful of Cannes hits that have gone on to do well at the Oscars.

I'm really looking forward to this film!