David's Oscar Predix

Hello all! Sorry for my long absence away from the blog, but school is hell these days, I guess I don't have to tell you! But that's not gonna stop me from getting my predix in come Oscar time.

Well, to get things going, here's my final predix on who will be nominated for tomorrow's Oscar nominations announcement.

BEST PICTURE

Atonement

Into The Wild

Juno

No Country For Old Men

There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men

Sean Penn - Into The Wild

Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell & The Butterfly

Joe Wright - Atonement

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney - Michael Clayton

Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

Emile Hirsch - Into The Wild

Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Julie Christie - Away From Her

Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose

Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart

Ellen Page - Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck - The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men

Hal Holbrook - Into The Wild

Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men

Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There

Catherine Keener - Into The Wild

Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Before The Devil Knows You're Dead

Juno

Michael Clayton

Ratatouille

The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Atonement

The Diving Bell & The Butterfly

Into The Wild

No Country For Old Men

There Will Be Blood

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

12

Beaufort

The Counterfeiters

Days Of Darkness

The Year My Parents Went On Vacation

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Persepolis

Ratatouille

The Simpsons Movie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

Autism: The Musical

The King Of Kong: A Fistful Of Quarters

No End In Sight

Sicko

War/Dance

BEST FILM EDITING

Atonement

The Bourne Ultimatum

Into The Wild

No Country For Old Men

There Will Be Blood

BEST ART DIRECTION

Atonement

Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Hairspray

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

There Will Be Blood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

Atonement

The Diving Bell & The Butterfly

No Country For Old Men

There Will Be Blood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Atonement

Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Hairspray

La Vie En Rose

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

BEST MAKEUP

300

La Vie En Rose

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Atonement

Into The Wild

The Kite Runner

Ratatouille

There Will Be Blood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

'That's How You Know' - Enchanted

'Grace Is Gone' - Grace Is Gone

'Come So Far (Got So Far To Go)' - Hairspray

'Guaranteed' - Into The Wild

'Falling Slowly' - Once

BEST SOUND EDITING

3:10 To Yuma

Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End

Ratatouille

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

Transformers

BEST SOUND MIXING

300

The Bourne Ultimatum

Hairspray

No Country For Old Men

Transformers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

300

Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End

Transformers

Final Tally:

9 - Atonement, Into The Wild

8 - There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men

5 - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

4 - Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, Hairspray

3 - Juno, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, La Vie En Rose, 300, Transformers

2 - The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford, The Bourne Ultimatum, Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End

Tune in tomorrow to find out the results!

My FINAL Oscar Nominee Predix

This is one of my favorite days of the year: Nomination Eve. All the guesswork we've been doing since March is about to be either proven or not. Very exciting stuff.
I told all of you that I was only going to allow myself to change one nominee in my Top 5 Final Predix. However, I'm pretty confident in my predix...or so I thought I was considering taking out Michael Clayton, but I ended up keeping it in. It seems like Diving Bell and the Butterfly should be in there somewhere, but where? I decided to just leave Best Picture as it is. But, for Best Director, I am pretty sure that I will be taking out Gilroy in place of Joe Wright for Atonement. Making such a prediction might make it seem like I don't know what I'm talking about, but I simply cannot see Gliroy's name being announced tomorrow. Don't ask why...

All I hope for is that my top 3 make the cut (speaking of which...my ballot and top 10 will be published on February 3. I know that's really late for an Oscar site, but there are some contenders that won't even open in my town until February). I would say that there is a pretty good chance of that happening, but...ya never know.

Okay, here we go (because this isn't focused on winners, this will be one of the few times where nominees are listed in alphabetical order, rather than their likeliness of winning):

BEST PICTURE
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright – Atonement

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page – Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Gangster
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
12
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
The Unknown
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Autism: The Musical
No End in Sight
The Rape of Europa
Sicko
War/Dance

BEST FILM EDITING
American Gangster
The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted
“Grace is Gone” – Grace is Gone
“Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)” – Hairspray
“Guaranteed” – Into the Wild
“Falling Slowly” – Once

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Enchanted
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd

BEST MAKEUP
300
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd

BEST SOUND EDITING
3:10 to Yuma
Hairspray
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST SOUND MIXING
300
3:10 to Yuma
Hairspray
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

I hope I'm able to get the nominees up tomorrow morning, but I might run into time issues...we'll see. But be sure to watch the Oscar Nominee Announcement tomorrow at 5:30 Pacific Time on...I don't know what station. It's probably on E!, so look there. If you don't have cable, then I would guess ABC because they're hosting the telecast.

Yay!

TOP 5 FINAL PREDIX: Best Picture

BEST PICTURE

1. No Country for Old Men-Very little can stop this from taking it all.

2. There Will Be Blood-Major success at the guilds could give this the statuette, but don't hold your breath.



3. Michael Clayton-It's almost surely gonna get the nod, but a win is near impossible.

4. Juno-It's an enormous hit with audiences and the guilds, but will that be enough? There's a lot of competition, and I'm afraid that this might be what suffers.

5. Into the Wild-It's either this, Diving Bell and the Butterfly or Atonement. We have to remember that EVERY member of AMPAS votes for BP; not just producers; and, even though it was snubbed at the PGA, it was still a smash hit everywhere else. This looks like the one, though Diving Bell is very close behind.

TOP 5 FINAL PREDIX: Best Director

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen-No Country for Old Men-They are pretty much the undisputed frontrunners. If they win the DGA, expect lock status.

2. Julian Schnabel-The Diving Bell and the Butterfly-He's in for a nomination, but only a DGA victory can get us talking about a win (translation: he'll have to accept just a nomination).

3. Sean Penn-Into the Wild-Both the Academy and the Director's Guild love their actors turned directors. He's safe.

4. Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood-He'll win someday. Not this year.

5. Tony Gilroy-Micheal Clayton-This could really go to Gilroy, Burton or Wright. Why am I giving it to Gilroy? Uhh...I dunno. I guess it's just because I would feel less stupid being wrong than I would be if I predicted Burton or Wright.

TOP 5 FINAL PREDIX: Best Actor

BEST ACTOR

1. Daniel Day-Lewis-There Will Be Blood-Count on it.

2. George Clooney-Michael Clayton-The rest of these four spots could really go to any of the 5 additional contenders. Clooney, however, is the safest bet of that group.

3. Ryan Gosling-Lars and the Real Girl-He's scored every precursor he needs, essentially. I don't see why he wouldn't be included.

4. Emile Hirsch-Into the Wild-The buzz has been cut in half after the PGA snub, but I think he should make it in without much sweat.

5. Viggo Mortenson-Eastern Promises-He's received every precursor nod he needs...now all he needs is buzz. However, I am very attached to my theory that Johnny will be snubbed.