Monday, August 25, 2008

Updated Personal Predictions

It's been about two months since the last time I updated my own predictions. To me, it looks like Best Supporting Actor could be the most competitive category this year. There were so many contenders that I really wanted to include (such as Josh Brolin in Milk, Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road, John Malkovich in Burn After Reading, Liev Schreiber in Defiance, and the list goes on and on...). As of today, it still looks like Benjamin Button is the film to beat but, after all, we've barely seen any of these films so it's all still speculation. With the debut of Frost/Nixon's trailer, Michael Sheen's chances have shot up for a nomination and I thought the trailer was good enough to bring Ron Howard back into the Oscar race. Unfortunately, Vicky Cristina Barcelona was not the smash hit many, including myself, were planning on it being so it's chances have lowered considerably. That being said, I'm still fairly certain of Cruz's nomination, although she is no longer a shoo in for the win like many, once again, myself included, thought she would be. Jonathan Demme's Rachel Getting Married had an outstanding trailer and I've jumped on the bandwagon (is there a bandwagon for this film?) for Demme's film and I'm predicting it in a couple of categories. Last but not least, I still think Richard Jenkins, whose delivered an outstanding performance in The Visitor, will pull a Julie Christie and re-enter the race come NBR time.

Here they are:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Road

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Hillcoat, The Road
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Edward Zwick, Defiance

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Russell Crowe, Body of Lies
Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading

Best Original Screenplay
Burn After Reading
Rachel Getting Married


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Road

Oscar season is about to start...what are your last predictions before the season begins?


Anonymous said...

Haven't seen the big players but I saw 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona' today and, while it's not nearly as satisfying as 'Match Point,' was pleasant enough. There is no resolution at the end so I think many people will leave saying 'Is that all there is?' Nonetheless, I thought Penelope Cruz gave it all the emotional weight it had, and I have not been a big fan other than in Almodovar's movies. I think it's the best female role Woody has written maybe since 'Mighty Aphrodite.' I think a Cruz win is entirely possible, unless Viola Davis blows us away in 'Doubt' or somebody else emerges. Still very early, as you say.

Anonymous said...

Regarding Vicky Cristina Barcelona - it's actually doing very well at the box office and is enjoying excellent word of mouth. It only dropped 20% from its first weekend to its second, a brilliant performance. It'll get best original screenplay and supporting actress nominations for sure.

Boy, you're an ignorant cretin.

Anonymous said...

I don't consider a score of 70 on Metacritic to be an overwhelming success when it comes to Oscar nominations.

And it's box office so far really isn't anything to freak out about.

Anonymous said...

Oh, and I'm still predicting it for a nomination for Cruz. I haven't given up on the film completely. And who knows, maybe it'll get the screenplay nomination too. It would probably be one of my next picks for a nomination.

Harry said...

Dr. Luna is a fucking bitch.

Anonymous said...

Don't know who the ignorant cretin remark was intended for, but it's totally misplaced. Who is Dr Luna? Is this what these blogs are for? I don't think so. I take them pretty seriously.