Tuesday, February 27, 2007

2007 Predictions: The First Batch (Best Picture)

I was going to wait a little longer after this year's awards before I started making '07 predictions, but it seems like, unlike last year, everyone's happy with the results of this year's show and ready to move on to next year. So here we go. This is sooo much fun, because in a few months (okay, like 10), we can look back at these predix and laugh. I'll do one category (only Big 8) every once in a while. Some may be an hour apart, some may be a month apart. The blog will mostly be used now for film reviews, editorials, articles, etc. It's a long way until we get to the Kodak again, so let's get started...

BEST PICTURE
American Gangster-Directed by Ridley Scott, written by Stephen Zallian and starring Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington, this is pure Oscar bait. I really think that it'll be a way for the involved artists to maybe become the hot stuff they once were.

Charlie Wilson's War-Like American Gangster, this is another Oscar darling. It's based on a very successful book, and in the hands of Mike Nichols, that's usually a good thing. The problem is that it stars Tom Hanks, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Julia Roberts; all Oscar winners. I don't think that there will be any acting Oscars that come out of it (except maybe Hanks, if he's lucky). Nominations should be plentiful, though, if the film is indeed a success. And I hear that Amy Adams is in this, and if her role is big enough...

The Kite Runner-Okay, so here's a red flag that these predix aren't going to be right because two of my nominees are about Afghanistan. But I think this is the most likely of them all, especially with Marc Forster of Finding Neverland and Monster's Ball behind the camera.

Lions for Lambs-Wow. A third Afghanistan one. There's a problem right there, but I just can't ignore the cast of Meryl Streep and Tom Cruise. And how much would we all like to see a Robert Redford reprise?

The Other Boleyn Girl-Based on an amazing book and featuring the perfect casting of Natalie Portman, it looks like a serious contender to me. I think that, if it gets the reviews, it will sneak up and become the film to beat. Provided that it's released in mainstream theatres (which I have a bad feeling it won't do).

DON'T COUNT OUT...
(In No Order)

The Simpsons Movie-Just kidding! This could get the best reviews of all time and it wouldn't get nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay even . I just wanted to take this oppritunity to announce that I'm a enormous nerd and this is my most anticipated movie...ever. Just as The Simpsons is my favorite show ever. Its Oscar chances lie only in Best Animated Film, where it probably won't even be nominated in. But come July 26, you will see four teenagers dressed as The Simpsons in a movie theatre.

There Will Be Blood-This is an adaptation of a novel written 80 years ago. It's in the hands of Paul Thomas Anderson, so it might work out, but I really think that this will be dated. Daniel Day-Lewis has an outside chance, though.

3:10 to Yuma-Sorry, but unless you're talking about The Departed (which is LOOSELY based on Foreign Affiars), I really have no tolerance for remakes. The fact that James Mangold of Walk the Line is directing it helps a little, but it's unlikely.

The Golden Age-The fact that this is a sequel to "Elizabeth" (1998) doesn't help. If Cate Blanchett hadn't already won an Oscar, I would be predicting this because she would probably be the performance-oriented Best Picture nominee (like The Queen or Capote), but I think all she can hope for is a nomination. But if it turns out to be a weak year for lead actresses, they might be willing to award a recent winner. You never know...

Sweeney Todd-One of my favorite musicals of all time (and coming from me, that's saying something) has finally made it to the big screen after 28 years of confusion. Party time! Not so much. I wasn't sure about Johnny Depp starring as the infamous barber of Fleet Street, but I've warmed up to him. But with Sacha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter starring and Tim Burton behind the camera, I think this will be lucky if it can pick some acting nominations (and I'm predicting Depp for Best Actor as of now). It really depends on how well it's received. But I have a terrible feeling about this.

My Blueberry Nights-AKA, Norah Jones trying to act. I'm predicting Jones for Best Actress, but I will probably end up laughing out loud at that prediction. If she gives a stellar performance, then this could be a contender for Best Picture to support Jones in Best Actress, but I'm not sure. At all. But I do love her.


Well, that's the first round of Best Picture nominations. Be sure to come back in 10 months to laugh your ass of at them.

Monday, February 26, 2007

A Recap of the 2007 Academy Awards

What a great show! The best Oscar telecast I've seen in a LONG time. Let's recap with five good things, and five not-so-good things (in no order)...

THE GOOD
1. Martin Scorsese finally wins Best Director! Woo-hoo! Everyone was on his side in the theatre, and he got a very, very well earned standing ovation.

2. Ellen DeGeneres. Oh my God, she was fantastic! I've always liked her, but now I'm really going to want to watch her show every day if what she did here was anything like she does there. I hope she comes back soon.

3. Alan Arkin takes Best Supporting Actor! Yay!

4. The Departed takes Best Picture. Yes, I was rooting for Little Miss Sunshine and (foolishly) predicting it, but seriously. The Departed was great too.

5. Helen Mirren takes Best Actress. Yes, she was a total lock, but, when I saw those clips, I was reminded of how incredible she was in The Queen. Worthy of the overwhelming praise she received.

THE BAD
1. The Lives of Others takes Best Foreign Langauge Film. I haven't seen the movie, but, like most films, it can't compare to Pan's Labyrinth. But I'm glad it took 3 other awards.

2. "I Need to Wake Up" takes Best Original Song. I like Melissa Etheridge, but seriously. Dreamgirls really should have gotten this for "Love You I Do" or for "Listen."

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal. Um, you're at the Oscars presenting an award. Can you please try to at least look like you're having fun?

4. That guy would show up every once in a while before the commericals to talk about the "surprises" throughout the night. Not only can you not act or talk or whatever it was that you were doing, but you also need to work on making sarcastic comments. Leave the Oscar predix to the bloggers; don't take it to the show. Besides, we're professionals at trying to sound like professionals.

5. Jack Nicholson. I couldn't stand that he announced Best Picture AGAIN, and the horrible look didn't help either.


But don't let the bad get in your way. This was an outstanding ceremony. On to fashion...

BEST DRESSED
Helen MirrenJust right. Simple, but with flavor. The gown of the winner she certainly is (er...was).

and

Reese WitherspoonBest dressed at the Oscars two years in a row. Wow. But really, she looked great.

WORST DRESSED
Ahh, Nicole! You're supposed to be Queen of the Red Carpet (along with Sarah Jessica Parker)! Didn't you learn from Charlize Theron last year that the parrot look just doesn't work out??????????

and

Jennifer Hudson

I love Jennifer Hudson, and I'm glad that she won. I'm also glad that she took off that ridiculious reflective mini-jacket when she got inside. But I'm not going to let her off the hook that easily...


Well, here's to another great Oscar year. Let's have a moment of silence for 2007...















I'll post my first batch of 2008 predix soon (and these are tons of fun; 2007 has already shaped up to be a great year for movies to make up for 2006's crap-fest).

Sunday, February 25, 2007

I got 18/24 correct, including all of the Big 8. More details tomorrow. I think all Oscar enthusiasts can agree on one thing though: Thank God Martin Scorsese won his Oscar!!

Recap of the Oscars

Well, I predicted 13 accurate winners, so an ok score for me, even though I could've done better. What a night for Martin Scorsese who finally picked up his Oscar, and when The Departed got the top prize from none other than Jack's hands himself (this is the 3rd year in a row when my favorite film of the year won Best Picture), but how surprising were these Oscars?

Alan Arkin won for Best Supporting Actor, a great win that almost nobody predicted, which is fantastic. Of course, we had our share of bad surprises, notably Children Of Men losing for Best Cinematography, Dreamgirls not picking up the Oscar for Best Original Song, losing to An Inconvenient Truth and Pan's Labyrinth losing for Best Foreign Language Film. Had it won, it would've tied The Departed with the most Oscars : Four.

All Best Picture nominees had at least an Oscar, and this was a tight race all the way to the end. With great dance numbers and a great presentation from Ellen DeGeneres, this was a great Academy Award ceremony, and I'm counting down until next year. Until then, have fun watching and predicting the films for 2007.

Best Picture nominees trophies

Babel : Best Original Score
The Departed : Best Picture, Best Director - Martin Scorsese, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing
Letters From Iwo Jima : Best Sound Editing
Little Miss Sunshine : Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin, Best Original Screenplay
The Queen : Best Actress - Helen Mirren

Other Awards

Best Actor : Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland
Best Supporting Actress : Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Best Art Direction : Pan's Labyrinth
Best Costume Design : Marie Antoinette
Best Cinematography : Pan's Labyrinth
Best Makeup : Pan's Labyrinth
Best Sound Mixing : Dreamgirls
Best Visual Effects : Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Animated Feature Film : Happy Feet
Best Documentary Feature : An Inconvenient Truth
Best Foreign Language Film : The Lives Of Others (Germany)

Finally... Best Picture

And the Oscar goes to... THE DEPARTED

Director

And the Oscar goes to... Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Actor In A Leading Role

And the Oscar goes to... Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland

Actress In A Leading Role

And the Oscar goes to... Helen Mirren - The Queen

Film Editing

And the Oscar goes to... The Departed

Original Song

And the Oscar goes to... An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''

Original Screenplay

And the Oscar goes to... Little Miss Sunshine

Original Score

And the Oscar goes to... Babel

Honorary Award

And the Oscar goes to... Ennio Morricone

Documentary Feature

And the Oscar goes to... An Inconvenient Truth

Documentary Short Subject

And the Oscar goes to... The Blood of Yingzhou District

Supporting Actress

And the Oscar goes to... Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

Foreign Language Film

And the Oscar goes to... The Lives Of Others (Germany)

Visual Effects

And the Oscar goes to... Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Cinematography

And the Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth

Jean Herseholt Humanitarian Award

And the Oscar goes to... Sherry Lansing

Costume Design

And the Oscar goes to... Marie Antoinette

Adapted Screenplay

And the Oscar goes to... The Departed

Animated Feature Film

And the Oscar goes to... Happy Feet

Supporting Actor

And the Oscar goes to... Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Sound Mixing

And the Oscar goes to... Dreamgirls

Sound Editing

And the Oscar goes to... Letters From Iwo Jima

Live Action Short Film

And the Oscar goes to... West Bank Story

Animated Short Film

And the Oscar goes to... The Danish Poet

Makeup

And the Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth

Art Direction

The Oscar goes to... Pan's Labyrinth

Here we go!!

The moment we've all been waiting for!

5 minutes away from the red carpet

You can feel the excitement, can't you?

Live Coverage

I highly recommend going to this link-

It is the Oscar Igloo's live coverage of the Oscars and it is very interesting.

http://www.atnzone.com/moviezone/oscars/2007/live.php?c=&s=0

One Hour and Thirty One Minutes

We're getting close!

David's Best Supporting Actress

Sorry, I've noticed I didn't put in my supporting actress picks. Anyway, here they are

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Anika Noni Rose - Dreamgirls

It is completed, and we're an hour and a half away. NICE!!!!!!!!

Editor's Final Predictions

Here are my final predictions. I've changed some of them from my analyses, but not many. My predicted winner is in red, and my runner-up is underlined.

BEST PICTURE

Babel
The Departed

Letters From Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro González Iñárritu-Babel

Clint Eastwood-Letters From Iwo Jima

Stephen Frears-The Queen

Paul Greengrass-United 93

Martin Scorsese-The Departed

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio-Blood Diamond

Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson

Peter O’Toole-Venus

Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness

Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz-Volver

Judi Dench-Notes on a Scandal

Helen Mirren-The Queen

Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet-Little Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine

Jackie Earle Haley-Little Children

Djimon Hounsou-Blood Diamond

Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls

Mark Wahlberg-The Departed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza-Babel

Cate Blanchett-Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine

Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls

Rinko Kikuchi-Babel

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel

Letters From Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

Pan’s Labyrinth

The Queen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

Children of Men

The Departed

Little Children

Notes on a Scandal

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

After the Wedding

Days of Glory

The Lives of Others

Pan’s Labyrinth
Water

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Cars

Happy Feet

Monster House

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Deliver Us From Evil

An Inconvenient Truth

Iraq in Fragments

Jesus Camp

My Country, My Country

BEST FILM EDITING

Babel

Blood Diamond

Children of Men

The Departed

United 93

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Black Dahlia

Children of Men

The Illusionist

Pan’s Labyrinth

The Prestige

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babel

The Good German

Notes on a Scandal

Pan’s Labyrinth

The Queen

BEST ART DIRECTION

Dreamgirls

The Good Shepherd

Pan’s Labryinth

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

The Prestige

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

I Need to Wake Up-An Inconvenient Truth

Listen-Dreamgirls

Love You I Do-Dreamgirls

Our Town-Cars

Patience-Dreamgirls

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Curse of the Golden Flower

The Devil Wears Prada

Dreamgirls

Marie Antoinette

The Queen

BEST MAKEUP

Apocalypto

Click

Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Poseidon

Superman Returns

BEST SOUND MIXING

Apocalypto

Blood Diamond

Dreamgirls

Flags of Our Fathers

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

BEST SOUND EDITING

Apocalypto

Blood Diamond

Flags of Our Fathers

Letters From Iwo Jima

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Binta and the Great Idea

Eramos Pocos

Helmer & Son

The Saviour

West Bank Story

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Danish Poet

Lifted

The Little Matchgirl

No Time for Nuts

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Blood of Yingzhou District

Recycled Life

Rehearsing a Dream

Two Hands

I can't wait for tonight! Ellen DeGeneres should be great!

David's Big 8 Awards

Well, Daniel put up his top 8 awards, and I thought I'd follow. Good idea!

Best Picture

Babel (2)
Blood Diamond (3)
The Departed**
Letters From Iwo Jima (4)
Little Miss Sunshine (5)

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron - Children Of Men (5)
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima (3)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel (2)
Paul Greengrass - United 93 (4)
Martin Scorsese - The Departed**

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (4)
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond**
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson (5)
Ken Watanabe - Letters From Iwo Jima (3)
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland (2)

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Toni Collette - Little Miss Sunshine (4)
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal (2)
Helen Mirren - The Queen**
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada (3)
Kate Winslet - Little Children (5)

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Steve Carell - Little Miss Sunshine (5)
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed (2)
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond (4)
Jack Nicholson - The Departed**
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed (3)

what can I say? I loved the film!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Children Of Men (2)
The Departed**
Flags Of Our Fathers (4)
Little Children (3)
Thank You For Smoking (5)

Best Original Screenplay

Babel (2)
Letters From Iwo Jima**
Little Miss Sunhine (3)
The Queen (5)
United 93 (4)

My Top Ten + Honorable Mentions, other awards, and Big 8

10. Notes on a Scandal
9. Shut Up & Sing
8. Flags of our Fathers
7. Marie-Antoinette
6. Half Nelson
5. The Queen
4. Babel
3. The Departed
2. Children of Men
1. Little Miss Sunshine

Honorable Mentions: An Inconvenient Truth, For Your Consideration, Thank You for Smoking, Casino Royale, Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Blood Diamond, Infamous

Worst of the year: Running with Scissors

Overrated film: The Last King of Scotland

Overrated performance: Djimon Housou, Blood Diamond

Underrated film: Flags of our Fathers

Underrated performance: Daniel Craig, Infamous

My Big 8 Awards

BEST PICTURE

Little Miss Sunshine**
Children of Men
The Departed
Babel
The Queen

BEST DIRECTOR

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
Martin Scorsese, The Departed**
Alfonso Cuaron, Children of Men
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel

BEST ACTOR

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Greg Kinnear, Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson**
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Aaron Eckhart, Thank You for Smoking

BEST ACTRESS

Helen Mirren, The Queen**
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Kirsten Dunst, Marie-Antoinette
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children (haven't seen this, but there weren't any other contenders that I could think of that I thought merited a nomination)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Daniel Craig, Infamous
Steve Carell, Little Miss Sunshine
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine**
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration**
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine**
Stranger than Fiction
Half Nelson

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children of Men
Flags of our Fathers
The Departed**
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You for Smoking

Best Picture?

In a year when the most nominated film didn't receive a Best Picture nod, when the acting categories were all predicted since the noms announcement ceremony and when Martin Scorsese will finally get his Oscar (he better, otherwise the AMPAS sucks), this will still be one of the best Award shows because the Best Picture race should be one of the closest in years.

I've seen Letters from Iwo Jima and it deserves to be on this list, but even if Clint pulls an upset and it's screenplay can get enough votes in a very competitive category, it will not win because it's a foreign language film. Little Miss Sunshine needs to pick up the Original Screenplay award to have a chance of winning because it looks like Alan Arkin and Abigail Breslin won't win in their respective categories. The Queen is a strong competitor and could pull an upset, but it seems more likely that they will reward Helen Mirren, not much else.

The race should be closer between Babel and The Departed. Babel seems like the favorite to win since it's a bit more Oscar bait, but The Departed seems to have a better chance of winning in it's categories, except maybe for Best Supporting Actor. There are a few categories that may decide of the outcome:

1) Best Film Editing
Both of them are nominated in this category, and if a film nominated for Best Picture wins in this category, it usually goes on to win the top prize.

2) Screenplays
While William Monahan's script will likely win for Best Adapted Screenplay, it is a very tough race for Best Original Screenplay. Indeed, 4 of the nominees for Best Picture are in this category. Paul Haggis has been nominated for the third straight year, but this doesn't seem to be his year. I haven't seen Pan's Labyrinth, but I don't think there's been enough buzz for it's screenplay to win. As for the other 3 films, they all have an equal chance of winning. Even though I predict Babel to win, Little Miss Sunshine seems like the favorite to take this award.

3) Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has made a tremendous film, and has worked exceptionally well with his international cast, but it won't seem enough for him to win. Martin Scorsese is the heads-on favorite, and his win will boost The Departed to win Best Picture, but if somehow Clint would get his 3rd directing Oscar, then those chances would slim down enormously.

Well, I can't wait for the announcement, and while I hope The Departed wins Best Picture, I will be happy with any film that wins this year because I loved all these films, and I can't wait to see what Ellen DeGeneres has in store for us.

Daniel Crooke's Final Oscar Predictions 2007

Finally, it's time. Here are my predictions for 2007-

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Babel
The Departed**
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Here's why- 'Letters' didn't get enough publicity. I'm guessing it beat 'Dreamgirls' for that last spot only by a small margin. 'The Queen' is a brilliant character study and doesn't have enough momentum to take the top prize. 'Sunshine' was my favorite of the year, but when it gets down to it, it isn't Oscar material. Sure it won the PGA and SAG...but is the Academy going to honor a comedy? 'Babel' is a HUGE love it-hate it. I loved it. That leaves 'Departed'. 'Departed' won the DGA and the Critic's Choice Awards. For those who say that mob movies can't win Best Picture...look at The Godfather (and part II). Scorsese has Best Director in the bag, and I think that he could just as easily take Picture as well. So, 'Departed' is my pick with 'Babel' and 'Little Miss Sunshine' right behind.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed**
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

The Academy truly has no heart if they give this to Eastwood over Scorsese. He should already have 2 Oscars (Raging Bull and Taxi Driver) and his waaaaay overdue. Of course, that goes without saying. The only upset I would be okay with in this category is Paul Greengrass.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland**

Whitaker has this in the bag. Should he? No. But, Whitaker gave a really good performance and will easily take this. I really hope Peter O'Toole upsets though. 'Last King' has made Whitaker a bigger icon then he was before. He will get another opportunity to win. O'Toole's career is (sadly) coming to a close soon. Please Academy, give this to Peter O'Toole.

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen**
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

This is Mirren's. She totally deserves it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine**
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Alan Arkin deserves this. This is the one prediction that I am predicting an upset. Sadly, Eddie Murphy will probably win. But, I'm going to go ahead and predict Arkin.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls**
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Hudson has this. She gave a great performance and her background of being kicked off 'American Idol' will give another reason for the Academy to give it to her. Good for her, excellent film debut. I prefer Adriana Barraza, but there is no stopping Hudson. And I'm okay with that.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine**
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

This is a three way race between 'Babel', 'Sunshine', and 'Queen'. 'Sunshine' won the BAFTA and the WGA. 'Queen' won the Golden Globe. 'Babel' is still a potential winner because there is a large chance it will win BP. 'Sunshine' has the edge though, and this will give the voters the best place to reward the film.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed**
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

First off, I can officially spell Kazakhstan correctly now because I have written it out so many times with that title. Anyway, 'Departed' has this hands down. Even if it doesn't win BP, it will most likely still win this.

And this is where the in-depth predictions end. Here's a straight forward list of my other predictions

BEST FILM EDITING

Babel
Blood Diamond
Children Of Men
The Departed**
United 93

BEST ART/SET DIRECTION

Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth**
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Curse Of The Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette**
The Queen

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Black Dahlia
Children Of Men**
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

BEST MAKEUP

Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth**

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babel**
The Good German
Notes On A Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Cars - ''Our Town''
Dreamgirls - ''Listen''**
Dreamgirls - ''Love You I Do''
Dreamgirls - ''Patience''
An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''

BEST SOUND MIXING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls**
Flags Of Our Fathers
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

BEST SOUND EDITING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags Of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima**
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest**
Poseidon
Superman Returns

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Cars**
Happy Feet
Monster House

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

After The Wedding (Denmark)
Days Of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives Of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)**
Water (Canada)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth**
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

I'll put up my Top Ten with honorable mentions, worst film of the year, most overrated film/performance, most underrated film/performance, and my own big eight awards. Enjoy tonight's show!

What Acting Clips Should They Use?

What are the highlights of the nominated performances that they should show? Here's what I think...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Hudson-And I Am Telling You. Duh.

Rinko Kikuchi-The locker room scene (nobody's ****** her yet)

Cate Blanchett-N/A

Adriana Barraza-The desert scene. Any part.

Abigail Breslin-The "Super Freak" dance or "Grandpa, am I pretty?"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Eddie Murphy-"What exactly would you like Jimmy to do for you?"

Jackie Earle Haley-N/A

Alan Arkin-"You're not a loser"

Mark Wahlberg-"I'm the one that gets the job done"

Djimon Hounsou-N/A


BEST ACTRESS

Helen Mirren-"That's how we do things in this country. Quietly and with dignity."

Judi Dench-N/A

Meryl Streep-Enough said.

Kate Winslet-N/A

Penelope Cruz-N/A


BEST ACTOR

Forest Whitaker-His speech to the crowd

Lenoardo Dicaprio-N/A

Peter O'Toole-When Jodie Whittaker asks "what do you like about me?"

Will Smith-The bathroom scene

Ryan Gosling-N/A


What does everyone else think?

A Look at Best Picture

Today is the day!! Which means that today's category is Best Picture. This is the most competitive race for the top prize in years. The nominees are...

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I've seen all but Letters.

BABEL-The Golden Globe makes this look really, really possible, and the Academy does love to make itself feel important by giving the prizes to "important" movies, like Babel. But this is a year like no other, and Babel hasn't won any significant precursors except for the Golden Globes, which is an entirely different group from AMPAS. I liked Babel; a lot, as a matter of fact; but I'll still be disappointed and a little surprised if it won.

THE DEPARTED-Everyone is predicting this to win, and I think it very well may. But, according to OscarAddict.com (which, by the way, I will start to be a contributor for this March), Academy members think that Scorsese's crime masterpiece is "too violent." Whatever. Everyone loved this movie that I know of. I still think that Marty will win Best Director. Or I hope that he'll win so much that I think he will. Either way, look out for this one.

LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-AMPAS loves Eastwood so much that they gave him a Best Picture nomination. That's it. They're not going to let him win when he got no buzz, low box office numbers and when his movie is in another language. Well, if there's one director who can break barriers for the Academy, it's Eastwood. And if there's one year when he can do it, it's this year. Still, it's unlikely.

LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-The three major Oscar sites I check (www.everytingoscar.com, www.theoscarigloo.com and www.oscaraddict.com) are all predicting something different. Sweeping the guilds (well, three out of four, and being nominated for the only loss) adds up to a Best Picture win, right? All I know is that I will be overwhelmed if this wins. In a good way. I'm predicting it more with my gut than with my brain (and as the brilliant Stephen Colbert says, "There are more nerve endings in your gut than there are in your brain.")

THE QUEEN-It'll dominate in Best Actress, but nowhere else. It's a damn good movie, but it's the kind that the Academy loves to reward with nominations; not wins. This is really the only Best Picture contender that can't win. But we can't use precedent to judge a year like this. Can we?

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (but I'll probably go back and forth every 5 minutes)
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Departed
3. Babel
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. The Queen

The best day of the year is here! I'll be posting all day.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Final Predictions Tomorrow!

Tomorrow will be CONSTANT blogging. I'll post my Best Picture analaysis, my final predictions and tons of other crap. The best day of the year is almost just 3 hours away!!!

Independent Spirit Award Winners!

Little Miss Sunshine is looking stronger and stronger...

BEST FEATURE
Little Miss Sunshine

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Shareeka Epps-Half Nelson

BEST MALE LEAD
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Frances McDormand-Friends With Money

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!)

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris-Little Miss Sunshine (!!!!!!!!!!!!)

BEST SCREENPLAY
Thank You For Smoking (whatever)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt-Little Miss Sunshine

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Pan's Labyrinth (!)

BEST FIRST FEATURE
Sweet Land

BEST FOREIGN FEATURE
The Lives of Others (Pan's wasn't even nominated here, but it was nominated for Best Picture. Wierd...)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Road to Guantanamo



Guess what awards show is in 22 hours?!?

1989 Opening Act

I found this on OscarWatch.com. It's the opening act to the 1989 Academy Awards. Yeech. Campy with a capital C. And A. And M. And P. And Y.

A Look at Best Director

Hmm. There's something happening tomorrow. What was it?

Well, why I try to figure that out, today's category is Best Director. The nominees are...

Alejandro González Iñárritu-Babel
Clint Eastwood-Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears-The Queen
Paul Greengrass-United 93
Martin Scorsese-The Departed

I've seen all of them but Letters. Go me.

INARRITU-In Babel and 21 Grams, he showed us that he can indeed direct a film. But the competition he's up against is just stronger and better known than he is. If he makes two or three more successful films, though, he'll get a statuette. This just isn't his year. Maybe for Best Picture.

EASTWOOD-Yes, the Academy loves Eastwood. But seriously, they're not going to give him three directing Oscars. But, like it or not, they still aren't going to snub Marty again. Right...? Ugh, that gave me a bad image.

FREARS-He deserves some sort of recognition for getting such an amazing performance out of Helen Mirren, but all four of the other nominees directed films that relied on good direction to work out. All of these nominees will probably become Oscar winners at some point. But only one can this year; and it's probably Marty.

GREENGRASS-His chances are a lot better than people think. He beat Marty at the BAFTA's, and United 93 is a showcase of the director. If his film got a Best Picture nomination, I would be predicting him in a heartbeat, but because no one has won Best Director without a BP nod since 1929, I just can't. But this isn't a year like any other. And the Academy does love snubbing Scorsese...

SCORSESE-People are saying that Scorsese will win because the Academy feels like they need to give him something for his career. But, a) he did a great job with The Departed; he was second best only to Greengrass, and b) why not give a career award? I mean, what is an Academy Award if not just a title for an accomplished person in Hollywood? Everyone is on Marty's side; even his fellow nominees. AMPAS just can't ignore that.

WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese-The Departed
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Scorsese
2. Greengrass (I'll take the risk)
3. Eastwood
4. Iñárritu
5. Frears

Tomorrow: Best Picture (OMG! NOW I REMEMBER WHAT TOMORROW IS!)

Final Independent Spirit Awards Prediction

Whoa, the Independent Spirit Awards are today. That was quick. I'm not going to predict every category, but for Best Feature, I predict Little Miss Sunshine, alt. Pan's Labyrinth.

Football Fans Discussing Best Actress

Who will win Best Actress (pretend that Helen Mirren isn't a lock)? Well, these football fans think they know. Yeech. It gets ugly.



Translation: I want it to be tomorrow soooo much.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Final Oscar winner predictions

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Best Director

Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Alejandro Gonzàlez Inàrritu - Babel
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Martin Scorsese - The Departed*

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit Of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland*

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen*
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls*
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls*
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children Of Men
The Departed*
Little Children
Notes On A Scandal

Best Original Screenplay

Babel*
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Best Film Editing

Babel
Blood Diamond
Children Of Men
The Departed*
United 93

Best Art Direction-Set Decoration

Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

Best Costume Design

Curse Of The Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette*
The Queen

Best Cinematography

The Black Dahlia
Children Of Men*
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

Best Makeup

Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth*

Best Original Score

Babel*
The Good German
Notes On A Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Best Original Song

Cars - ''Our Town''
Dreamgirls - ''Listen''*
Dreamgirls - ''Love You I Do''
Dreamgirls - ''Patience''
An Inconvenient Truth - ''I Need To Wake Up''

Best Sound Mixing

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags Of Our Fathers*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Best Sound Effects Editing

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags Of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima*
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Best Visual Effects

Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns*

Best Animated Feature Film

Cars*
Happy Feet
Monster House

Best Foreign Language Film

After The Wedding (Denmark)
Days Of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives Of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)*
Water (Canada)

Best Documentary Feature Film

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth*
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

A Look at Best Actor

Today's category is Best Actor, the most...hmm...what's the word?...race. The nominees are...

Leonardo DiCaprio-Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole-Venus
Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland

I've seen Venus, Happyness and Last King. One by one...

DICAPRIO-No one was predicting him for THIS, but now they're saying he's the most likely upset. That might be true. Sorta. It's clear that the Academy loved the film, but enough to have it surprise? Possibly. He just hasn't won any notable precursors. It's looking like Whitaker's race to lose.

GOSLING-Everyone loves the film, specifically his performance, but underexposure will be a major factor. He should just enjoy being nominated-it's not even a race that's worth being a part of. It's so unexciting.

O'TOOLE-He deserves to win not only for his career, but for this performance. He is outstanding as Maurice and the film itself is fantastic. He should have been nominated in Musical/Comedy at the Globes, the film is NOT a drama. If people would just watch the movie he'd be the frontrunner. Sadly, he won't win. Or will he...? No.

SMITH-This performance was waaay better than I thought it would be, as was the film. He has something like a 5% chance, but who really knows? I mean, there has to be some surprise this year (but for this category, that surprise would be O'Toole or DiCaprio).

WHITAKER-I loved the movie, and I think that Forest Whitaker is definitely worthy of a nomination, but certainly not a win. He'd be something like third, with Peter O'Toole and Will Smith coming before him. But, winning just about every precursor has to add up to something, which, for him, will be a win. But the movie hasn't been very popular (but if it were judged by how many people saw the movie, Smith would dominate). He's more the frontrunner by default than by deserving it.

WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
SHOULD WIN: Peter O'Toole-Venus
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Whitaker
2. O'Toole
3. DiCaprio
4. Smith
5. Gosling

Tomorrow: Best Director

A Change in the Predix

I'm changing my prediction in Best Sound Editing to Letters From Iwo Jima. Apparently it won the Sound Editor's Guild, which I'd assume is like the the Director's, Writer's, Producer's and Actor's Guilds.

Ugh, I want it to be Sunday sooo much. But until then, I leave you with Michael Moore's (in?)famous Oscar speech.



Heh. Now they'd be cheering.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

The Yearly Acting Lock of the 21st Century

Every year at the Oscars from 2000, there's always one lock in one of the acting categories. Have you noticed that? Here's what they are (in my own opinion, of course). Anyways...

2006-Helen Mirren-The Queen (or so we can assume)
2005-Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote
2004-Jamie Foxx-Ray
2003-Charlize Theron-Monster
2002-Nicole Kidman-The Hours (eh, this might be an exception to the rule. Wasn't it awesome when Adrien Brody won this year? I'd love to see that happen to Arkin in Best Supporting Actor on Sunday)
2001-Jennifer Connelly-A Beautiful Mind
2000-Julia Roberts-Erin Brockovich

So, why are there only total locks in the 21st century? Because of the internet, of course. Buzz is more effective than some people give it credit for. And, isn't it worth pointing out that, as the years continue, the lock gets stronger and stronger (except for maybe in 2005/2004). Makes you think, huh?


In other words, I'm really bored and I really want it to be Sunday. Luckily, I've rented The Departed, Venus, Flags of Our Fathers, An Invonvenient Truth and The Illusionist to distract myself until then.

A Look at Best Actress

Today's category is Best Actress, the easiest to predict category of the year. The nominees are...

Penelope Cruz-Volver
Judi Dench-Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren-The Queen
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet-Little Children

I've seen Prada and The Queen. Yawn.

CRUZ-I've been predicting her as a nominee for a long time, along with everyone. She really doesn't stand a chance. Well, then again, no one really stands a chance except Mirren. She should be glad to be nominated; especially when her movie was snubbed for Foriegn Langauge Film.

DENCH-The only thing that could possibly upset Mirren. Well, Hell would have to freeze over first, but still. She's won ONE precursor (a British one...I forget what it's called). Mirren has this race locked up. But the Academy loves Dench, so they'll probably give her a second Oscar at some point. But certianly not here.

MIRREN-She's been called the surest thing since Titanic. The surest thing since Lord of the Rings. The surest thing since Charlize Theron. The surest thing since Jamie Foxx. Either way, she's a sure thing (I'd say she's the surest thing since...well...Helen Mirren). She has everything for her and nothing against her. They might as well do this over the phone.

STREEP-She'll get a third Oscar at some point, but the nomination is her reward. I mean, who else could find an Oscar nomination in a summer movie about fashion other than Meryl? Maybe Dench. Anyways, she'll get a third one someday. But not this year, and definetley not for this performance.

WINSLET-It's already amazing that she survived the buzz. She is an Academy favorite, and she'll get her Oscar one day. In the mean time, she can brag that she has 5 nominations at 31 years of age. Jeez.

WILL WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren-The Queen
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Mirren
2. Mirren
3. Mirren
4. Mirren
5. Mirren

Okay, fine.

1. Mirren
2. Dench
3. Streep
4. Winslet
5. Cruz

Tomorrow: Best Actor

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

A Look at Best Supporting Actor

Today's category is Best Supporting Actor, the year's most competitive category. The nominees are....

Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley-Little Children
Djimon Hounsou-Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg-The Departed

I've seen three out of five (LMS, Dreamgirls and The Departed). And one by one we go...

ARKIN-I'm praying that he will upset so much that I'm almost predicting it. While he is the second most likely out of this category, Murphy is gonna take it. We're only calling it the "most competitive category" because it doesn't seem like anyone really loves Murphy in Dreamgirls, but he's won all the precursors, but does anyone else notice that he isn't really happy in his acceptance speeches? But, he does have the BAFTA (even though Murphy wasn't nominated there). And if he wins, LMS will more than likely take BP.

HALEY-He has critics on his side, but the film had very little exposure. Everyone that saw it seemed to like it enough, but there just isn't any buzz about this--or Winslet's, really--performance. He'll take critical praise and this nomination as the reward. Besides, he lost the BAFTA to Arkin. But, then again, it is a very competitive race. Sorta.

HOUNSOU-The Academy apparently loved this movie, but precursor support and critical attention will be key in this race, and Hounsou falls flat in that category. Also, in categories this odd, AMPAS usually doesn't know what to do and gives it to the frontrunner while they find out what the hell happened. Sorry.

MURPHY-He's hit the three of four of the major precursors-BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG, only losing the BAFTA to Arkin, which puts him in first place automatically. But, I just can't see the presenter reading his name from the envelope. OK, I can, but it just seems like it'd be anticlimactic. And, contrary to popular belief, no. Norbit will have no effect on him whatsoever. Jeez.

WAHLBERG-I predicted him to be nominated. And only to be nominated. Buzz is making it seem possible, but when put up against three neck-in-neck performances, there isn't room for a fourth. But he'll win someday for something. Or at least I hope.

WILL WIN: Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Murphy
2. Arkin
3. Haley
4. Wahlberg
5. Hounsou

Tomorrow: Best Way to Honor Helen Mirren. I mean, Best Actress

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

A Look at Best Supporting Actress

The year's most timid category, today we are doing Best Supporting Actress. The nominees are...

Adriana Barraza-Babel
Cate Blanchett-Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi-Babel

I've seen all but Notes on a Scandal (and I predicted this category 100% right! Yay).

BARRAZA-My favorite performance out of this category. Barraza was very down to earth and timid in an extremely difficult role. She (or Rinko) would probably be able to pull off a win if they were the only ones from Babel nominated. Votes will split like crazy now.

BLANCHETT-She would be a LOCK if she didn't just win. Normally I would put her second, but I can't see very many--if any--Academy members voting for her when she just won. Unless they want to make up for snubbing her for Elizabeth (again). This is off the subject, but isn't it weird that Judi Dench, who won the Oscar in 1998 for playing Queen Elizabeth II while she was shut out for playing the same character, are now both nominated for the same movie, but this time Blanchett is supporting and Dench is lead. I've just been thinking about that since I first heard about this movie. Moving on...

BRESLIN-This is the year of first-time nominees. Abigail Breslin is the only possible upset, if you ask me. It all comes down to the precursors, which Hudson has conquered in. And I really don't think she deserves it; not because she wasn't great in it, but because I feel awkward giving kids this young Oscars. Seems like the kind of thing that would scar them for life (but Tatum O'Neil and Anna Paquin are doing alright, so I dunno.)

HUDSON-Considering that she's won virtually every precursor and all of the other nominees are improbable (Barazza and Kikuchi will split votes, Blanchett won too recently and Breslin didn't get nominated for Golden Globe), she'll take this one in a cakewalk (deservingly, in most senses of the word).

KIKUCHI-She would have a better chance than Barazza because she opened to much more buzz, but now that they're both nominated it will be vote splitting, vote splitting, vote splitting. Also, Barazza has taken a great deal of the buzz to make it 50:50.

WILL WIN: Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Adriana Barazza-Babel
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Hudson
2. Breslin
3. Blanchett
4. Kikuchi
5. Barazza

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

Monday, February 19, 2007

A Look at Best Original Screenplay

Today's category is the always under-appreciated Best Original Screenplay category. The nominees are...

Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

I've seen all but Letters. And all of them deserve to be nominated.

BABEL-I suppose this could upset if voters go crazy over Babel, but it hasn't won any significant precursors for the screenplay itself that secure its spot. But, the buzz and overall baitiness of Babel could make it a Best Original Screenplay winner. How I see it? Babel will be an all-or-nothing thing.

LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-Apparently AMPAS doesn't consider letters and diaries as a base for a film because they haven't been published, thus they aren't "Adapted From Previously Published Material", but I seriously doubt that Letters will win any significant awards, if any at all. It really only got its praise because Eastwood's name was on it.

LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-Not only did it not win at the Golden Globes, but it wasn't even nominated. So? The Hollywood Foreign Press and The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are two totally different organizations with totally different members. And, because almost every, if not all, Academy members are members of one of the guilds, and this took the WGA, it's practically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better reason.

PAN'S LABYRINTH-This must have been the Academy's way of making up for not having room in Best Director for Del Toro (come on...The Queen was a great movie, but Stephen Frears' direction wasn't what made it great). Because it wasn't going to win there, it won't win here either, unfortunately.

THE QUEEN-As I said in Little Miss Sunshine's analysis, success at the Golden Globes only goes so far. Most people are putting this in second place or even first, when all evidence points to Little Miss Sunshine and Babel way before this.

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (with Pan's as a CLOSE second)
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. Pan's Labyrinth

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress

Sunday, February 18, 2007

A Trip Down Memory Lane...

Now that the big show is just a week away, I thought it would be a good time to reflect on what I predicted at the beginning of this race. Luckily, I found my predix from late March. Here we go...

BEST PICTURE
Dreamgirls-This seems to be the frontrunner in just about everything. The Academy does love musicals as of late (Chicago, Moulin Rogue!), but something tells me this won’t make it to the end, even with the early teasers and December release…

Flags of Our Fathers-A Clint Eastwood film can usually find its way into the running. Being two years after “Million Dollar Baby,” I wouldn’t predict it to win, but a definite early frontrunner.

All The King’s Men-Started out a frontrunner, until “Dreamgirls” came into play. But it’s so early in the year; we need a space-filler.

Little Children-I’d say Kate Winslet is a lock for Actress, and a Picture nod would only help.

A Prairie Home Companion-Altman just received the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Academy, and his new film is suddenly generating huge buzz.

IN THE RUNNING

Marie-Antoinette-A period film, a female-lead and visual stunners point right to last year’s “Memoirs of a Geisha.” It’s all techs and, possibly, leading actress for this one.

Infamous-A movie about Truman Capote’s writing of the book “In Cold Blood.” Well, it’d be a frontrunner if a movie about the exact same thing hadn’t received 5 nominations last year. No chance.

The DaVinci Code-How long will it take everyone to realize that movies based on popular novels released in summer aren’t going to be Oscar frontrunners?!

The Departed-The Academy has shown virtually no love for comedies in recent years (with the exception of “Sideways”). And, with two in my list already (“All the King’s Men,” “Prairie Home Companion), it’s something of impossible.

Current Comments: Heh. I was somehow under the impression that The Departed was a comedy. That was the only one on the list that got the nod.

BEST DIRECTOR

Robert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion-A frontrunner for a nomination, but I think his dislike of the Academy will make his Lifetime Achievement Award his only one.

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls-Same as Dreamgirls’ Best Picture fate.

Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers-A nomination would work because of the name, but every sign points to him space-filling.

Martin Scorsese, The Departed-I say this every time he has a film coming out, but…THIS IS GOING TO BE HIS YEAR!

Steven Zallian, All the King’s Men-I’ll still take the early buzz…

IN THE RUNNING

Todd Field, Little Children-The Best Picture nod is only to support Winslet, and New Line Cinema hasn’t been the most promising studio lately…

Milos Forman, Goya’s Ghosts-I don’t know why I didn’t put “Ghosts” as a Picture consideration, but he could surely pull it off. He’s an Academy favorite.

Sofia Coppola, Marie-Antoinette-She made it for “Lost in Translation,” but the Academy’s feeling about female directors could scare her nomination away.

Current Comments: Eh, I got Scorsese right. I don't know why I predicted him for Best Director and not Best Picture.

BEST ACTOR

Brad Pitt, Babel-It has to be one amazing performance, because he’s not exactly Oscar bait.

Ryan Phillippe, Flags of Our Fathers-Reese won last year. Can he be known by his name and not Reese Witherspoon’s husband? Possibly: with buzz this weak in his category, he’s locked for now.

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland-I’ll level. I’ve never even heard of this movie. But the Academy needs to have racial diversity in at least one category, and Actor has seemed to provide that recently.

Sean Penn, All the King’s Men-Respected by the Academy in a talked about film. What more is there to say?

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed-“The Aviator” only got him a Globe, so why not give him another nod?

IN THE RUNNING

Guy Pearce, Factory Girl-Another film I know nothing about, and am only basing because of the feminine performance. However, with Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s sweep, his chances are looking lesser and lesser.

Toby Jones, Infamous-This is a bad time to be Toby. You sign and complete a baity, star-studded movie only to find that the role you’re playing has already swept America’s hearts. It’s Guy Pearce times a million.

Russell Crowe, A Good Year-His recent rage issues will make the Academy like him less and less. Could one of the best current actors be shunned by the Oscars for life?

Current Comments: Eh, I got Whitaker right. And I totally forgot about the rage issues with Russell Crowe. Sigh. This brings back more memories than I thought it would.

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Winslet, Little Children-After nominations for “Sense and Sensibility,” “Titanic,” “Iris” and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” she should finally get the Oscar she’s been longing for.

Cate Blanchett, Babel-Does anyone remember that Cate won just two years for “The Aviator?” She had no work at all in ’05, and this film could bring her back after her total absence last year.

Anna Paquin, Margaret-Buzz is just too strong to resist.

Nicole Kidman, Fur-This is Nicole’s last shot at remaining a respected actress. “Bewitched” and the forgotten “The Interpreter” put her on the line. This performance is full of potential, and could easily win back her Hollywood respect.

Scarlett Johansson, Scoop-Though it’s not very likely that she’ll remain in the race, I just say, “Why not?” She has to get something other than a measly Globe nomination for her work with Woody Allen.

IN THE RUNNING

Beyonce Knowles, Dreamgirls-Okay. Beyonce has a lot of work to do to get into the race. For me, she’ll only be nominated if she clean-sweeps every single precursor.

Salma Hayek, Ask the Dust-A raved performance. The only thing that’s keeping her away from an Oscar is everything but her performance. The movie was released too early and wasn’t loved by critics. “Eternal Sunshine” can only happen when the movie itself is unforgettable.

Kirsten Dunst, Marie-Antoinette-At this point, it is very likely she will be nominated. But, the Ziyi Zhang Geisha snub keeps coming to my mind.

Current Comments: Wow, Winslet really was a sure thing. It makes me surprised that she was nominated now when the movie was so underexposed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Departed-I guess “The Departed” has to be nominated somewhere for something. This seems like a nice category to get attention.

Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers-Apparently, the character is loved enough to earn him a nomination.

Javier Bardem, Goya’s Ghosts-After the “The Sea Inside” lack of attention two years ago, he’s due for a nomination.

Robert Downey Jr., Fur-“Fur” is shaping up to be a considerable film for the acting categories. Downey is loved by the public and critics alike, and his choice in films can’t be beat by anyone else in Hollywood.

Paul Bettany, The DaVinci Code-The character is complex and human enough to earn a nomination. Besides, we have to give “The DaVinci Code” a little recognition. I’m not saying that summer movies are always anti-Oscar (remember the “Crash” shocker only a little more than a week ago?).

IN THE RUNNING

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls-I’ve always had a feeling that Eddie Murphy would win an Oscar someday. This is a beloved role in an Oscar-friendly film. Quite possible.

Gael Garcia Bernal, Babel-He starred in “Bad Education,” a beloved 2004 Mexican film. Maybe he’ll receive a “welcome to the club” nomination

Kevin Kline, A Prairie Home Companion-Kline does comedy well, and could pull it off. The 2006 Best Supporting Actor race is looking to be the most competitive category of the year, as it was last year.

Current Comments: Hey, I was right about Supp. Actor being the most competetive category!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Running with Scissors-At this point, there is no doubt that she will finally receive her Oscar. That is, unless the role is leading. Then it’s a fierce race between her and Winslet.

Meryl Streep, A Prairie Home Companion-Meryl Streep is one of the two actresses in Hollywood that can get a nomination for just about whatever she does. A lock.

Jennifer Connelly, Little Children-A lock, but will probably only be nominated to support Winslet.

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal-Wondering why I didn’t mention the other actress in Meryl’s description? Here she is.

Maria Bello, WTC-Though she may be snubbed yet again (see “The Cooler” and “A History of Violence”), I’ll stay confident on this one.

IN THE RUNNING

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls-I’m probably the only Oscar follower at this point that isn’t going crazy over “Dreamgirls.” Does anyone remember that Jennifer is an American Idol finalist and that she’s never been in a major film before? She holds the same fate as Beyonce.

Patricia Clarkson, All the King’s Men-Will last year’s buzz return?

Natalie Portman, Goya’s Ghosts-She’ll get her Oscar someday, but I don’t think here is the right place.

Current Comments: Heh. I guess I was sorta right about Hudson; that she'd have to get every precursor to win/be nominated. And I'm still laughing that I called Streep and Connelly a lock for a nomination and Bening a lock for a win. And I coulda sworn that Judi Dench would be in supporting.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (I didn't have comments on the screenplays)
Babel

Goya’s Ghosts
The Science of Sleep
The Good Shepard
Stranger than Fiction

IN THE RUNNING
For Your Consideration
Breaking and Entering
WTC
The Departed

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Prairie Home Companion
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Flags of our Fathers
Fur

IN THE RUNNING
Notes on a Scandal
The DaVinci Code
Marie-Antoinette

Current Comments: Category confusion, category confusion, category confusion.


Makes you feel nostalgic, huh? God I want it to be the 25th.