A Look at Best Original Screenplay

Today's category is the always under-appreciated Best Original Screenplay category. The nominees are...

Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

I've seen all but Letters. And all of them deserve to be nominated.

BABEL-I suppose this could upset if voters go crazy over Babel, but it hasn't won any significant precursors for the screenplay itself that secure its spot. But, the buzz and overall baitiness of Babel could make it a Best Original Screenplay winner. How I see it? Babel will be an all-or-nothing thing.

LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-Apparently AMPAS doesn't consider letters and diaries as a base for a film because they haven't been published, thus they aren't "Adapted From Previously Published Material", but I seriously doubt that Letters will win any significant awards, if any at all. It really only got its praise because Eastwood's name was on it.

LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-Not only did it not win at the Golden Globes, but it wasn't even nominated. So? The Hollywood Foreign Press and The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are two totally different organizations with totally different members. And, because almost every, if not all, Academy members are members of one of the guilds, and this took the WGA, it's practically a sure thing. And it couldn't be for a better reason.

PAN'S LABYRINTH-This must have been the Academy's way of making up for not having room in Best Director for Del Toro (come on...The Queen was a great movie, but Stephen Frears' direction wasn't what made it great). Because it wasn't going to win there, it won't win here either, unfortunately.

THE QUEEN-As I said in Little Miss Sunshine's analysis, success at the Golden Globes only goes so far. Most people are putting this in second place or even first, when all evidence points to Little Miss Sunshine and Babel way before this.

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (with Pan's as a CLOSE second)
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. Pan's Labyrinth

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress