Best Picture?

In a year when the most nominated film didn't receive a Best Picture nod, when the acting categories were all predicted since the noms announcement ceremony and when Martin Scorsese will finally get his Oscar (he better, otherwise the AMPAS sucks), this will still be one of the best Award shows because the Best Picture race should be one of the closest in years.

I've seen Letters from Iwo Jima and it deserves to be on this list, but even if Clint pulls an upset and it's screenplay can get enough votes in a very competitive category, it will not win because it's a foreign language film. Little Miss Sunshine needs to pick up the Original Screenplay award to have a chance of winning because it looks like Alan Arkin and Abigail Breslin won't win in their respective categories. The Queen is a strong competitor and could pull an upset, but it seems more likely that they will reward Helen Mirren, not much else.

The race should be closer between Babel and The Departed. Babel seems like the favorite to win since it's a bit more Oscar bait, but The Departed seems to have a better chance of winning in it's categories, except maybe for Best Supporting Actor. There are a few categories that may decide of the outcome:

1) Best Film Editing
Both of them are nominated in this category, and if a film nominated for Best Picture wins in this category, it usually goes on to win the top prize.

2) Screenplays
While William Monahan's script will likely win for Best Adapted Screenplay, it is a very tough race for Best Original Screenplay. Indeed, 4 of the nominees for Best Picture are in this category. Paul Haggis has been nominated for the third straight year, but this doesn't seem to be his year. I haven't seen Pan's Labyrinth, but I don't think there's been enough buzz for it's screenplay to win. As for the other 3 films, they all have an equal chance of winning. Even though I predict Babel to win, Little Miss Sunshine seems like the favorite to take this award.

3) Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has made a tremendous film, and has worked exceptionally well with his international cast, but it won't seem enough for him to win. Martin Scorsese is the heads-on favorite, and his win will boost The Departed to win Best Picture, but if somehow Clint would get his 3rd directing Oscar, then those chances would slim down enormously.

Well, I can't wait for the announcement, and while I hope The Departed wins Best Picture, I will be happy with any film that wins this year because I loved all these films, and I can't wait to see what Ellen DeGeneres has in store for us.