A Look at Best Picture

Today is the day!! Which means that today's category is Best Picture. This is the most competitive race for the top prize in years. The nominees are...

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I've seen all but Letters.

BABEL-The Golden Globe makes this look really, really possible, and the Academy does love to make itself feel important by giving the prizes to "important" movies, like Babel. But this is a year like no other, and Babel hasn't won any significant precursors except for the Golden Globes, which is an entirely different group from AMPAS. I liked Babel; a lot, as a matter of fact; but I'll still be disappointed and a little surprised if it won.

THE DEPARTED-Everyone is predicting this to win, and I think it very well may. But, according to OscarAddict.com (which, by the way, I will start to be a contributor for this March), Academy members think that Scorsese's crime masterpiece is "too violent." Whatever. Everyone loved this movie that I know of. I still think that Marty will win Best Director. Or I hope that he'll win so much that I think he will. Either way, look out for this one.

LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA-AMPAS loves Eastwood so much that they gave him a Best Picture nomination. That's it. They're not going to let him win when he got no buzz, low box office numbers and when his movie is in another language. Well, if there's one director who can break barriers for the Academy, it's Eastwood. And if there's one year when he can do it, it's this year. Still, it's unlikely.

LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE-The three major Oscar sites I check (www.everytingoscar.com, www.theoscarigloo.com and www.oscaraddict.com) are all predicting something different. Sweeping the guilds (well, three out of four, and being nominated for the only loss) adds up to a Best Picture win, right? All I know is that I will be overwhelmed if this wins. In a good way. I'm predicting it more with my gut than with my brain (and as the brilliant Stephen Colbert says, "There are more nerve endings in your gut than there are in your brain.")

THE QUEEN-It'll dominate in Best Actress, but nowhere else. It's a damn good movie, but it's the kind that the Academy loves to reward with nominations; not wins. This is really the only Best Picture contender that can't win. But we can't use precedent to judge a year like this. Can we?

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine (but I'll probably go back and forth every 5 minutes)
SHOULD WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. The Departed
3. Babel
4. Letters From Iwo Jima
5. The Queen

The best day of the year is here! I'll be posting all day.