First Round Predix: Best Original/Adapted Screenplay

Well, here we are. The last part of our first-round predix. Overall, there are about...a million things I want to change. But I won't let myself.

Now, onward...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Vicky Cristina Barcelona-I'm starting to love this project...

2. Hamlet 2-This one, too...

3. Synecdoche, New York-And yet, this is a great premise. The script reviews have been mixed, though, so I don't know.

4. Australia-I'm warming up to this quite a bit, but dramas have a clear disadvantage in this category.

5. WALL-E-Pixar is overdue for a win, but this category tends to prefer dialogue-heavy comedies.

IN THE RUNNING

6. The Soloist (original or adapted? It says it's based on articles, but the Academy counted Letters from Iwo Jima as original, so...)
7. Burn After Reading
8. Milk
9. Changeling
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (anyone else get a bad vibe from this?)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Doubt-This is a very dialogue-intense play, which will help it greatly in this category.

2. Frost/Nixon-Play adaptations tend to do well in this category, but Doubt is baitier.

3. Body of Lies-Wow, I have little faith in this project anymore. It gets this spot just because it's my BP prediction as of now.

4. The Road-This might be too bleak and sci-fi-oriented for the Academy to embrace, but if it's a success (which it probably will be), I can see it getting nods here and for Best Actor.

5. The Reader-The push here will probably be in Best Actress, but this looks to be another intellegent film, which they love here.

IN THE RUNNING

6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. Revolutionary Road
8. Appaloosa
9. Defiance
10. Blindness

A Look at Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are...

Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

I'VE SEEN: 4/5. All but The Savages.
I PREDICTED: 4/5. I had American Gangster instead of Lars and the Real Girl. I really don't know why, but I did.

JUNO-Despite the fact that people are criticizing it for being overwritten, I wouldn't listen to their ramblings. Ms. Cody has picked up nearly every precursor that matters, and should have no trouble doing the same for the Oscar. I can't wait to see her acceptance speech.


LARS AND THE REAL GIRL-Last minute buzz prevailed, and it got this nomination...for some reason. Glad to see another woman in this category, though.

MICHAEL CLAYTON-It could win simply because they don't want Michael Clayton to go home empty-handed, but if they choose to do that, they'll give Supporting Actress to Swinton. Juno is just too strong.

RATATOUILLE-As with all animated nominees in this category, this nod is just a way of saying "yes, you're going to win Best Animated Film." That said, it's not really IMPOSSIBLE. It is the best reviewed film of the year.

THE SAVAGES-The nomination for Linney shows that the film did have a decent amount of love, so it could upset...but probably not.

WILL WIN: Juno
SHOULD WIN: Juno

IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Juno
2. Michael Clayton
3. The Savages
4. Ratatouille
5. Lars and the Real Girl

TOMORROW: Best Supporting Actress (we're getting closer...)

TOP 5 FINAL PREDIX: Best Screenplays

I just realized that nominations are being announced this Tuesday.



Wow.


Okay, so here's the game plan: starting today, I'm going to be making my final nominee predix for the top 5 (or is it 6?) categories (Screenplays, Actress, Actor, Director and Picture). I will finalize each category one day at a time. After I somehow decipher what the hell my final BP predix will look like on the 20th, I will finalize every category, besides shorts. I will only allow myself to change ONE nominee in the top 5. So, let us start with Best Screenplays:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Juno-It's won virtually every precursor besides the GG, and, if there is a comedy in the BP lineup, it will usually win this category. Basically a lock.

2. Michael Clayton-Its likely BP nod will secure a spot for the screenplay.

3. Ratatouille-We all know they have a thing for Pixar in this category. It shouldn't have any trouble getting in.

4. American Gangster-This has to be rewarded somewhere, doesn't it?

5. The Savages-It feels like this movie died, but the WGA nod is reasurring, I suppose. And, between Lars and the Real Girl and Knocked Up, this is definitely the most baity.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. No Country for Old Men-Even if the movie somehow fails to win Best Picture, this is one win the Coens can count on.

2. There Will Be Blood-The admiration for PTA in the writer's community is enough to get him in, and the fact that this film is so highly acclaimed makes it pose a slight threat.

3. Into the Wild-Even if the film fails to get a BP nod, the WGA nomination assures it a spot here.

4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly-Foreign films rarely get screenplay nods, but Diving Bell is, refreshingly, being treated equally.

5. Zodiac-It's either this or Atonement, but, with Zodiac snatching a Scripter and WGA nod over Atonement, this looks pretty solid. I honestly think Atonement will be shut out of all the major categories.