BEST PICTURE
1. Charlie Wilson's War-The leaked script has been praised, and the cast and crew make it look like solid Oscar bait. We've been predicting this since March, and it's looking more and more likely all the time.
2. The Kite Runner-While adaptations of popular novels haven't been doing so well lately, the subject matter here is just too baity to resist.
3. There Will be Blood-I'm having some second thoughts about this one, but if Daniel Day-Lewis is in it, it's very likely that the Academy will embrace it.
4. The Savages-The festival darling will be hard to ignore if it ends up with reviews as good as they've been so far, and solid box office numbers.
5. Atonement-It all depends on what the Venice Film Festival thinks.
2. The Kite Runner-While adaptations of popular novels haven't been doing so well lately, the subject matter here is just too baity to resist.
3. There Will be Blood-I'm having some second thoughts about this one, but if Daniel Day-Lewis is in it, it's very likely that the Academy will embrace it.
4. The Savages-The festival darling will be hard to ignore if it ends up with reviews as good as they've been so far, and solid box office numbers.
5. Atonement-It all depends on what the Venice Film Festival thinks.
IN THE RUNNING
6. The Golden Age-The trailer looks very meaty, and Cate Blanchett has had a solid record with AMPAS for a long time. I just don't think that it'll make it very far.
7. Sweeney Todd-I'm losing my confidence in this one...
8. American Gangster-You know what I'm gonna say...
9. Lions for Lambs-This one looks likely to fail as well.
10. Ratatouille-I guess I got swept away with the acclaim, and didn't recognize that this doesn't stand a chance.
7. Sweeney Todd-I'm losing my confidence in this one...
8. American Gangster-You know what I'm gonna say...
9. Lions for Lambs-This one looks likely to fail as well.
10. Ratatouille-I guess I got swept away with the acclaim, and didn't recognize that this doesn't stand a chance.
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
11. Margot at the Wedding-I think The Savages has a better chance. This should do great in Best Supporting Actress, though.
12. The Simpsons Movie-Kidding! But the reviews have been very good, and I just wanted to remind everyone how excited I am for tomorrow.
13. Hairspray-Too light and teen-ish for the Academy, but it could easily pick up some Golden Globe nods.
14. No Country for Old Men-I think this will get honored in Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, but Best Picture still seems like a long shot.
15. The Valley of Elah-The trailer looks very good and Oscar friendly, but I don't think it will succeed; especially not in this category.
16. The Other Boleyn Girl-Looks more unlikely than ever now.
17. I'm Not There-Too artsy for the Academy, and I still think the project will fail as a whole.
18. Eastern Promises-The trailer looks like an action movie rather than an Oscar bait.
19. Youth Without Youth-Not only do I think this won't succeed, but I also think that it won't find a distributor until next year.
20. 3:10 to Yuma-I personally thought the trailer was unimpressive, and I sense bad reviews.
12. The Simpsons Movie-Kidding! But the reviews have been very good, and I just wanted to remind everyone how excited I am for tomorrow.
13. Hairspray-Too light and teen-ish for the Academy, but it could easily pick up some Golden Globe nods.
14. No Country for Old Men-I think this will get honored in Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, but Best Picture still seems like a long shot.
15. The Valley of Elah-The trailer looks very good and Oscar friendly, but I don't think it will succeed; especially not in this category.
16. The Other Boleyn Girl-Looks more unlikely than ever now.
17. I'm Not There-Too artsy for the Academy, and I still think the project will fail as a whole.
18. Eastern Promises-The trailer looks like an action movie rather than an Oscar bait.
19. Youth Without Youth-Not only do I think this won't succeed, but I also think that it won't find a distributor until next year.
20. 3:10 to Yuma-I personally thought the trailer was unimpressive, and I sense bad reviews.
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