Saturday, January 17, 2009

David's Final Oscar Predix

After all the Award ceremonies and winners in some cases, it's finally time to offer up my predictions on the nominees which will be announced on Thursday. I'll put my comments for the Big 8. Contrary to some bloggers who have already predicted, I will NOT make any alternate picks to the nominees I pick because it's just too easy to get it right with 2 or 3 backup choices. The Oscars have a mind of their own, so I hope to get most of them right and that you will agree with most of them, so here goes:

Best Picture

3 films which have been nominated for the 3 Guild Awards did not get a nod in the Picture category: Being John Malkovich, Almost Famous and Le Scaphandre Et Le Papillon (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly). It is hard to ignore Frost/Nixon as it's been a strong and consistent contender throughout the Award season and it might make the cut, but it just seems like a year where a great film like WALL-E will slip in. After all, never have all 5 films nominated for the PGA went on to be nominated for Best Picture. Hopefully, WALL-E will be the 2nd animated film to make the top 5.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Best Director

Going the safe route here with all 5 DGA nominees.

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Best Actor

3 of the actors will be clear locks for nominations: Rourke, Penn and Langella. The other two spots will be fought between 4 actors: Clint, Brad, Leo and Richard Jenkins. Leo is losing momentum and Kate's getting the attention for Revolutionary Road so he might sit it out this year. Brad will make the cut seeing as he got the Globe and SAG noms and the film was considered the favorite very early on. Clint's last performance as an actor might get a sympathy vote from the Academy as a Thank you, but I've a feeling we won't be seeing the last from Clint at the Oscars (a Nelson Mandela film in the works with Morgan Freeman will probably get him another Director nod and/or award). I'll give the final nod to Richard Jenkins because he got a SAG nom and they'll want to give him a first nomination.

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Best Actress

Kate Winslet had quite a night at the Globes so she's a sure bet for a nom. Count Meryl in no questions asked. Anne Hathaway hasn't always won but she made it throughout the season so she'll be in too. My personal favorite, Sally Hawkins, had quite the challenging role but she seems like the darling amongst her peers and she'll represent the comedies this year. With one spot left, the most likely candidate will probably be Melissa Leo. Kristin Scott Thomas and Angelina Jolie lost momentum, Michelle Williams' movie might be too small and Cate Blanchett will miss out this time.

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor

This is my favorite category this year because I will probably end up surprised by the nominees. It seems clear at this point that Heath will win the award uncontested. Philip Seymour Hoffman has been nominated throughout the Award Season, as Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. so count them in. That leaves the final spot. Michael Shannon was great as the overhonest man in RR but he's been overlooked many times. I loved Dev Patel, the SAG nom helped his chances and Slumdog is rolling right now, but he might just miss out. We shouldn't count out James Franco but he has lost momentum. Ralph Fiennes has two films that might sneak him in the category, but choosing one particular film will not get him enough votes. I'll take a chance and say that the 5th spot will go to Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky because Hawkins' best scenes are with him and he'll be able to sneak in without being really noticed by the Awards beforehand.

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan - Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet will probably win her first Oscar in this category for The Reader. Penelope Cruz' buzz is still strong so she'll be nominated. Viola Davis' performance is short but strong so count her in too. Marisa Tomei was nominated a lot throughout the season so she should make the cut, even though the attention is around Rourke. With one spot left, the likely candidates are either Amy Adams or Taraji P. Henson, seeing as both Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger lost momentum a long time ago. Amy Adams is great as the observer of the events in Doubt, but it just seems that Taraji's performance will be noticed more by Oscar voters, so I'll put her in.

Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Best Original Screenplay

Dustin Lance Black is the strongest contender in this category for Milk. Woody Allen is getting a lot of love for Vicky Cristina Barcelona and it's not because of the Cruz-Johansson kiss. Normally an animated film makes the list so we can count WALL-E in for Andrew Stanton. Robert Siegel should make it also for taking us in the wrestling world. Nick Schenk's very real and crude dialogue for Gran Torino is very popular. Mike Leigh wrote a great script reminding us of the joys of every day life. Tom McCarthy's script for The Visitor is fantastic but might go unnoticed. Jenny Lumet has lost too much momentum for Rachel Getting Married, so I'll give the edge to Leigh at this point.

Woody Allen - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Robert D. Siegel - The Wrestler
Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon - WALL-E

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Best Picture nominees shoud get the nominations in this category. With Peter Morgan who'll be a sure bet, there's one spot left, and it will probably be between David Hare for The Reader and John Patrick Shanley for Doubt, but Shanley has the edge.

Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan & Jonathan Nolan - The Dark Knight
Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt

Best Animated Feature Film
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz With Bashir

Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)

Best Documentary Feature Film
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Best Original Song
'Down To Earth' (Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman) - WALL-E
'Gran Torino' (Jamie Cullum) - Gran Torino
'I've Thought I Lost You' (Miley Cyrus, Jeffrey Steele) - Bolt
'Jai Ho' (A.R. Rahman) - Slumdog Millionaire
'The Wrestler' (Bruce Springsteen) - The Wrestler

Best Sound Editing
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
WALL-E

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

So here's the final recap:

13 nominations: The Dark Knight, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
8 nominations: Slumdog Millionaire
7 nominations: Milk, WALL-E
5 nominations: Frost/Nixon
4 nominations: The Wrestler, Doubt, Revolutionary Road
3 nominations: Happy-Go-Lucky, The Reader, Iron Man
2 nominations: Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Changeling

Well, what do you think?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am still having my doubts for 'Dark Knight' in the Best Picture category, despite the PGA. Nobody seems to remember that last act where we thought the picture was over three different times. I like all your other predictions, but I will throw up my hands if Jenny Lumet squeaks by with a nomination. That movie was un-watchable if it weren't for Anne Hathaway, but she may be in trouble after 'Bride Wars'. Don't forget how Eddie Murphy got sacked for 'Dreamgirls' after such an unfortunate follow-up choice as 'Norbit'. I won't be upset at all if 'Frost/Nixon' is ignored in every category except Best Actor. It should have been confined to the stage.

coffee said...

Brad Pitt is a great actor... i love the imagination that went into making Benjamin Button; i hope he wins