First Round Predix: Best Actress

BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep, Doubt-She's terribly overdue for a third win, and this is the very definition of a baity role.

2. Kate Winslet, The Reader-Everyone wants her to win, but both of her projects this year sound shaky. Still, I remain optimistic.

3. Julianne Moore, Savage Grace-I desperately want her to win, and with this and Blindness, it looks possible. But so far, Meryl and Kate are stealing her thunder.

4. Angelina Jolie, The Changeling-The film itself sounds questionable, but she was snubbed this year and this is Clint. And yet...

5. Kerry Washington, Mama Black Widow-It would just be too boring to have the typical lineup of Meryl, Kate, Julianne and Angelina. So I'm throwing in Kerry Washington. She probably has no chance at all, but I want to be adventurous.

IN THE RUNNING

6. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-The Academy will have a hard time being Cate-free for a year, but I remain on the fence about the film.

7. Nicole Kidman, Australia-Honestly, I wouldn't trust her to turn in good work anymore.

8. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona-The talented and lovely Cruz could be looking at Oscar gold again, but I don't think the film will be big enough.

9. Keira Knightley, The Dutchess-She's got the talent, but the project itself sounds like it's destined for failure.

10. Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!, Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road, Julianne Moore, Blindness-If they don't get the nod for the film I predicted them to get it for, they'll probably get it here.

Now that we've seen Marion Cotillard...

...in person, re-watch this clip from "La Vie en Rose". Now knowing how Mademoiselle Cotillard speaks and acts, her acting as Piaf in this scene seems even better (in an already spectacularly acted scene). I thought this would be appropriate seeing as the love for Marion Cotillard going on on the site (and the internet) right now.

A Look at Best Actress

The nominees are...

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

I'VE SEEN: 4/5. Very subjected to change, as I may be seeing The Savages this weekend.
I PREDICTED: 4/5. Like most, I predicted Angelina Jolie would get in over Laura Linney.

BLANCHETT-A not-all-that-acclaimed performance in a mediocre film. Besides, she'll win for her average performance in I'm Not There instead.

CHRISTIE-See, logic tells me to go with her, and I think there's a very good chance they will. However, there's something about predicting her that goes against my morals. I always need to make one surprise prediction in one of the last 4 categories to keep me on my toes all night, so I'm kind of steering away from Christie.

COTILLARD-After her "surprise" BAFTA victory, she's being predicted as an 11th hour upset. I'm probably going to go with that. I can really see this happening (and it couldn't be for a better performance).

LINNEY-She's gotten some buzz, and I do think it's interesting, but I believe (and hope) that she'll have a Helen Mirren year and win every precursor leading up to the Oscar. She deserves better than this. However, she looks unbelievable in her clips.

PAGE-I can REALLY see this happening, but I kind of hope it doesn't. Don't get me wrong; Page gave one of the three best performances of the year (with Day-Lewis and Cotillard); but I hope that in maybe 10 years she'll give a knock-out performance that will win her an Oscar. This is a star-making performance, but I would be a bit disappointed to see her win an Oscar--simply because it would make it more difficult to win one later on.

WILL WIN: Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose...for now
SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose

IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
2. Julie Christie - Away From Her
3. Ellen Page - Juno
4. Laura Linney - The Savages
5. Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age

TOMORROW: Best Actor

My god, I cannot wait for Sunday.

TOP 5 FINAL PREDIX: Best Actress

BEST ACTRESS

1. Julie Christie-Away From Her-She's legendary, she's got a boatload of precursors, she's critically acclaimed...she's just about locked and loaded.

2. Ellen Page-Juno-She's this year's breakthrough character actress. She'll have to settle for that. Unless there's some sort of upset...

3. Marion Cotillard-La Vie En Rose-Refreshing to see that a foreign actress can achieve lock status.

4. Angelina Jolie-A Mighty Heart-I'm not sure how she did it, but the buzz is back and it's golden. She's got everything ready to get a nod.

5. Cate Blanchett-Elizabeth: The Golden Age-To my surprise, it seems that her performance overpowered the film's awful reviews. Can you imagine what a lock she'd be if the film didn't suck?

Knightley, Knightley

Hey, before I continue my predix, I would like to ask someone if Kiera Knightley is lead or supporting for Antonement? I haven't read the book, but if you have, could you please say if it's a leading or supporting performance in a comment? Thanks.

Predictions: Round Two (Best Actress)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Natalie Portman-The Other Boleyn Girl-I seriously cannot see any of these actresses winning, but if I had to pick one, I guess it would be her. And yes, I know, I'm denying my short lived "The Other Boleyn Girl will bomb" theory.

2. Norah Jones-My Blueberry Nights-After the Jennifer Hudson win, they won't award another singer an acting award, but if this does well at Cannes, who knows?

3. Angelina Jolie-A Mighty Heart-She desperately needs another nomination. The summer release date is a little concerning, but she might stand out.

4. Sarah Jessica Parker-Spinning into Butter-Losing buzz fast.

5. Meryl Streep-Lions for Lambs-It's Streep. C'mon.

IN THE RUNNING

6. Claire Danes-Evening-She's a pretty talented girl, but the early release date and being snubbed by the Academy in the past doesn't help her case.

7. Cate Blanchett-The Golden Age-The trailer was pretty awful.

8. Helena Bonham Carter-Sweeney Todd-Message to my fellow Oscar lovers: unless they change everything about the show, THIS IS A LEADING PERFORMANCE. I don't think she'll make the cut. Such a shame, too. A great role played by a great, albeit strange, actress.

9. Anne Hathaway-Becoming Jane-It's being released in August. Enough said.

10. Catherine Keener-An American Crime-The release date is WAY too early for AMPAS.