Golden Globe Predix!

To be totally upfront, I never understood why out of all the other Oscar precursors, the Golden Globes is the only one produced on Network TV. The Hollywood Foreign Press has got to be the most biased board of voters in the industry; if an actor gives a good performance in the type of movie they would like (i.e. a musical, quirky drama or independent comedy), they will nominate them for whatever they touch (a la Johnny Depp, Barbra Streisand, Renee Zellweger...you get the idea). Not only that, but every year their choices have less and less impact on the Oscars. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it is certainly frustrating when people think that if the Best Picture winner did not win the award at the Globes, it is a "surprise."

That said, the fun thing about the Globes is that they honor "lighter" movies, and their selections are usually quite easy to predict. So what will be a hit at the Globes this year? Take a look (titles written in bold are predicted to be nominated):

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Almost purely by coincidence, the (so far) undisputed frontrunner ATONEMENT is a visually impressive love story; the kind of film that the HFPA would want to honor in this category. Consider it in. THERE WILL BE BLOOD also looks strong, what with the Paul Thomas Anderson factor. But it does have some realistic violence in it, which could fend off voters, but I doubt it. The film's reviews have been too strong for even the Globes to ignore. THE KITE RUNNER is looking less strong, but I still think it will have the momentum to pull off a nod in this category (however, probably not at the Oscars). Contrary to popular belief, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN is not looking all that strong at the Globes. Yes, it is Coen Brothers, but it's Coen brothers like you've never seen them before. And yet, I have a great deal of confidence in this project. This and There Will be Blood are looking to be the silent threats of the year. As for the fifth spot, it's basically a match between Charlie Wilson's War and Into the Wild, but I'm going with INTO THE WILD simply because it has more Golden Globe appeal than Charlie Wilson's War. But fortunately for the latter, it has a better chance of scoring at the end of the year.

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The separation of Comedies and Dramas is the best known difference between the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards. This is where those GG trademarks that I was talking about come into play. And nothing fits that trademark better than JUNO, my prediction for sleeper comedy of the year. Well...almost nothing. Even if the reviews are horrible, SWEENEY TODD is basically guaranteed a spot on the lineup. And if it is even a modest hit, it will sweep this category. I mean, it's a musical starring Johnny Depp directed by Tim Burton. Can you say Golden Globe? HAIRSPRAY is actually looking weak, despite its outstanding reviews and HFPA bait galore. However, it still has that John Travolta musical factor, which will probably be enough to drive this to a nomination. THE SAVAGES has an HFPA friendly feel on the surface, but the more I think about it, the less likely I think it will happen. But the reviews continue to be exceptional, and if that continues, it should get the nod. Just as before, I am torn between two films for the fifth spot. This time it is Margot at the Wedding and Enchanted. Believe it or not, I am actually going with ENCHANTED. Margot at the Wedding has gotten lukewarm reviews, and Enchanted looks absolutely fantastic; kids movie or otherwise. You'll probably hate me for this, but I think that Enchanted actually has a shot at getting some awards attention beyond just Best Actress (Best Original Screenplay anyone?).


Stay tuned for acting predix.