Friday, January 25, 2008

My Final DGA Prediction...

As we all know, the Director's Guild of America Award always ends up being a very important precursor. Around 80% of the time, the recipient of the award goes on to win the Best Director Oscar, and it is also a catalyst in predicting BP. The winner is being announced tomorrow, so my final prediction is:

JOEL COEN AND ETHAN COEN for NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN. Obviously. No Country is almost certainly going to win Best Picture, unless it doesn't work out at the guilds. I'm actually kind of hoping it goes to someone totally unexpected like TONY GILROY for MICHAEL CLAYTON or even SEAN PENN for INTO THE WILD if they really want to screw with us, but of course that's not going to happen. PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON for THERE WILL BE BLOOD is a dark horse candidate, and a win here would definitely make the Best Picture race more interesting, but, if the Coen Brothers fail to win for some reason, it will go to JULIAN SCHANBEL for THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY. It would be really interesting if that did happen, seeing as how it would make the arguable frontrunner the director of a foreign, non-BP nominated film. But it's pretty clear that the Coens will take it in a breeze.

But who knows? What do you all think? Discuss on the forum.

1 comment:

the z said...

The only times the DGA winner did not win the Oscar:

1968: Anthony Harvey won DGA for "The Lion in Winter," while Carol Reed won the Oscar for "Oliver!"

1972: DGA - Francis Ford Coppola, "The Godfather"
Oscar - Bob Fosse, "Cabaret"

1986: DGA - Steven Spielberg, "The Color Purple"
Oscar - Sydney Pollack, "Out of Africa"

1995: DGA - Ron Howard, "Apollo 13"
Oscar - Mel Gibson, "Braveheart"

2000: DGA - Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
Oscar - Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic"

2002: DGA - Rob Marshall, "Chicago"
Oscar - Roman Polanski, "The Pianist"

NOTE: Speilberg and Howard weren't even nominated for the directing Oscar in 1986 and 1995, respectively.