George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
I'VE SEEN: 4/5. All but Eastern Promises; it looks like a bit too much for me to handle...
I PREDICTED: 3/5. I said Johnny would be snubbed to make room for Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl, and, like everyone, I said Emile Hirsch instead of Tommy Lee Jones (happy to be wrong there).
CLOONEY-Everyone is placing him second...and I have no idea why. The problem is that his performance, much like the film, is liked by everyone, but loved by very few. He's a very, very dark horse no matter how you put it.
DAY-LEWIS-A phenomenon of a performance. Everyone, even his fellow nominees, have said that he gave the best performance by an actor this year. He's got everything for him, and nothing against him. He'll be receiving his well-deserved second Oscar in a breeze.DEPP-He hasn't gotten much precursor attention, and honestly, no one has said he gave this amazing performance. It's really hard to say...
JONES-A terrific performance in a terrible movie, but considering that the nomination itself was a huge surprise, he really poses no threat at all.
MORTENSEN-I actually think he is the most likely upset. He certainly has a strong fanbase and you could kind of argue that he's overdue. But it doesn't really matter, seeing as how Daniel Day-Lewis is a sure thing.
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
3. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
4. George Clooney - Michael Clayton
5. Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
TOMORROW: Best Director (oh...my...god. We're almost there...)
1 comment:
I think that you're the first person who sees Viggo as the possible upset. It's occurred to me as well that he could be the true dark horse that no one is paying attention to. Actually, DDL and Viggo were my two favorite lead actor performances this year. As much as I want to see DDL collect his 2nd Oscar, if Viggo got it instead I would not be unhappy.
As for Depp, I'm not sure where he stands. He did get nominated, despite the fact that his film was shut out of all the big categories otherwise, which means that they like and respect him. I think that for the most part the members of the SAG nominating committee just hadn't seen the movie. Same with the BAFTA's. But the critics had seen it - it was on several top 10 lists, Burton got a bunch of nods there. I expected Depp to show up more in the critic awards, and he didn't at all. Other than the BFCA and Golden Globes he has no precursors at all. So it's hard to tell. He's also 'due', as is Viggo. Perhaps moreso, because he's already been nominated twice before with no win.
And Depp does have a strong fanbase. Certainly among them I've seen remarks about his performance being amazing. Many critics have praised it, but perhaps he didn't have as many raves as his fellow nominees. I haven't compared and contrasted.
Tommy Lee Jones has tons of industry respect, and though Elah was a disappointment, Jones' performance was wonderful, and exactly the type of role that the Academy loves. Plus he's a good guy among mostly villainous leading men. Clooney may have this going for him, too. And, of course, Clooney is loved in the Academy. So is his movie, rumor has it.
DDL is the clear frontrunner, and I'm predicting him to win, as most people are. I could see reasons why any of his four competitors might upset. But I think the upsets will happen in other categories, like Best Picture, and probably the actress categories.
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