Friday, February 22, 2008

On Second Thought...

...I am changing my Best Actress prediction to Ellen Page. Why? Mostly because of one man:

So I did some research, and I found something that might be worth noting. Roger Ebert has picked a Best Actress nominated film as the best of the year 10 times: Bonnie & Clyde (1967, Faye Dunaway received the nod), An Unmarried Woman (1978, Jill Clayburgh), Sophie's Choice (1982, Meryl Streep), The Color Purple (1985, Whoopi Goldberg), Leaving Las Vegas (1995, Elisabeth Shue), Fargo (1996, Frances McDormand), Monster's Ball (2001, Halle Berry), Monster (2003, Charlize Theron), Million Dollar baby (2004, Hilary Swank) and now Juno.

Not counting Ellen Page, because, obviously, we don't know how she will do, 5/9 of those women--around 56%--have gone on to win the Oscar. Also take notice that the last 4 times when this happened, the nominated women took home their statuettes.

It may also be noteworthy that Ebert has predicted the Best Actress winner correctly every year since 2002 when Halle Berry upset (kinda) Sissy Spacek. This year, he is predicting Page.

Finally, the only times in Oscar history that both lead acting awards have gone to previous winners are 1973 (Glenda Jackson and Jack Lemmon) and 1994 (Tom Hanks and Jessica Lange). Day-Lewis is a lock, but Christie remains somewhat vulnerable.

I dunno...maybe this doesn't prove anything (I usually hate when people use trivia as logic, but I was really surprised at all of this). I just thought it was really interesting, and I've been imagining Ellen winning for days. I can really see it. I'm going for it, even though it will probably end up being Christie or even Cotillard. My updated predix are:

1. Ellen Page - Juno
2. Julie Christie - Away from Her
3. Marion Cotilalrd - La Vie en Rose
4. Laura Linney - The Savages
5. Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age

As I write this, I realize that I really do regret giving Cotillard my award. However, I allow myself to change my picks up until the ceremony. I think I might take advantage of that.

3 comments:

Ryne said...

Most of these best actress predictions have been "Duh..." choices so I don't know how much merit to put into these numbers

AJ said...

I noticed the two veteran thing too, but went with Marion Cotillard. I went with her over Ellen Page because I think the only way Ellen Page will win is if Juno wins Picture, which I don't see happening.

Cinemaniac said...

Why do you regret it? Because Ebert doesn't pick her?