The nominees are...
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Darkside
War/Dance
I'VE SEEN: 0/5, embarrassingly. I wanted to see Sicko, but never got to. And the rest never opened in my town.
I PREDICTED: 3/5; I got No End in Sight, Sicko and War/Dance.
NO END IN SIGHT-A highly acclaimed, political and depressing film. Perfect for this category.
OPERATION HOMECOMING-I highly doubt they'll see it. Don't count on it.
SICKO-It could win just because it's Moore, he's got money and it's political. They also might want an exciting speech that they can finally clap at instead of booing as they did in 2003 when he won for Bowling for Columbine. Still, I think No End in Sight has the edge.
TAXI TO THE DARKSIDE-Don't count it out as a potential upset. The PGA victory was certainly helpful. However, I think the Academy will react stronger to No End in Sight or maybe Sicko. Also, considering that this is the only non-political film, it probably indicates that the Academy wants to reward politics.
WAR/DANCE-Perhaps, but I think this will fade away with the competition.
WILL WIN: No End in Sight
SHOULD WIN: Not Applicable
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. No End in Sight
2. Sicko
3. Taxi to the Darkside
4. War/Dance
5. Operation Homecoming
TOMORROW: Best Foreign Language Film
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3 comments:
"I highly doubt they'll see it. Don't count on it."
They HAVE to see it. They can't vote for it unless they attend official screenings.
That's the rule, but it's never enforced. My mom has a friend in AMPAS, and she often votes in categories where she's only seen a few of the films. However, I really wish that they would see them all.
I thought that for the shorts and the documentary feature they had to attend special screenings. I read in more than one place last year that that is why Pan's lost to Lives, because the people who had time to attend the special screenings are the kind of people that prefer Lives.
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