Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
I'VE SEEN: 4/5. All but Jesse James, which may change this week.
I PREDICTED: 4/5. I had Tommy Lee Jones for No Country in place of Holbrook. Looks like I snubbed Into the Wild in the wrong place.
AFFLECK-He's gotten a surge of buzz recently, but nothing will take the award away from Bardem.
BARDEM-Arguably the biggest lock of the year. Bardem has created a character with a huge cult following only a few months after his film was released. He's got this award.
HOFFMAN-This is a reward for having such a good year. Nothing else.
HOLBROOK-The most likely upset if they don't want to give Ruby Dee Best Supporting Actress but do want to give out a "just in case you die before you give an Oscar worthy performance" award. But he really can't dethrone Bardem.
WILKINSON-I would be ecstatic if this happened, but if they do like Michael Clayton, they'll give Swinton an Oscar instead of Wilkinson. Sad.
WILL WIN: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
3. Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
4. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
5. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
TOMORROW: Best Actress (ahh! so close!!)
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