American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
I PREDICTED: 2/5...eek. I went with The Assassination of Jesse James, Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Hairspray in place of American Gangster, Atonement and The Golden Compass. I kind of sleepwalked through these predix.
I'VE SEEN: 3/5. I never saw The Golden Compass, and I saw Ruby Dee's scenes in American Gangster. I watched the first 10 minutes of the SAG screener, too, but it was waaaay too intense for me.
AMERICAN GANGSTER-I doubt it. I'm sure the art direction was good enough, but the Academy prefers awarding movies with a specific tone in this category. Manhattan just isn't original enough.
ATONEMENT-The film is a very safe choice for this category (just like the Academy likes it) and the sets here were simply gorgeous. It has a really good chance, but it's hard to pick between this and Sweeney.THE GOLDEN COMPASS-Another very Oscar-friendly film in terms of Art Direction, but did enough people see it? I kind of doubt it.
SWEENEY TODD-It'll go to this or Atonement. However, the Academy may want to award Sweeney Todd in some way and if they pass on Costume Design, this is really the only other chance (unless they have an 11th hour meltdown and give Depp Best Actor...that won't happen, right?). My prediction is that it will win both: this had very impressive art direction, and it has Academy friendly costumes.
THERE WILL BE BLOOD-I suppose if the Academy really wants to give TWBB a tech win it'll be here, but, in retrospect, there were better choices.
WILL WIN: Sweeney Todd
SHOULD WIN: Atonement or Sweeney Todd
IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Sweeney Todd
2. Atonement
3. There Will Be Blood
4. The Golden Compass
5. American Gangster
TOMORROW (er...later tonight): Best Cinematography
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