A Look at Best Picture

We made it! The nominees are...

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I'VE SEEN: 5/5. I'm cool like that.
I PREDICTED: 4/5. I had Into the Wild in place of Atonement. I don't think I've ever been more excited to have been wrong. Now if only Diving Bell and the Butterfly could replace Michael Clayton...

ATONEMENT-This nod is actually somewhat surprising. While momentum has been gaining ever since the film got its coveted 7 nods, we have to be logical: Atonement has a very, very, VERY slim chance. The director snub certainly doesn't help, either.


JUNO-If the precursor-showered, more Oscar friendly Little Miss Sunshine lost last year, I don't see how Juno can win. I'm just thrilled it got the nomination. I really, really do love this movie.

MICHAEL CLAYTON-Probably the least likely nominee. The film is universally liked, but very few are calling it the best of the year (save Richard Roeper and the Reel Geezers). Quite frankly, I don't see how it got this far.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN-The most sure Best Picture winner since Lord of the Rings. No Country has won acclaim from every critic and moviegoer in America and has won virtually every precursor. Nothing can stop this. And, quite honestly, I'm okay with that. No Country for Old Men was a really good movie, no matter how you spell it out.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD-I would be ecstatic if this won, but it never got the precursor love it needed. The universal claim that it is a "masterpiece" places it in second, but it really has very little chance. However, in about 20 years, I think we ill all be wondering how the hell this lost.

WILL WIN: No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. No Country for Old Men
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Juno
4. Atonement
5. Michael Clayton

It's Oscar night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!