A Look at Best Supporting Actress

The nominees for the alleged "most confusing race of the year" are...

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

I'VE SEEN: 4/5...or 5/5. I didn't see American Gangster, but I saw all of Ruby Dee's clips. Interpret that as you like.
I PREDICTED: 3/5. I went with Catherine Keener for Into the Wild over Dee, and I made a last minute surprise prediction and put Redgrave in over Ronan.

BLANCHETT-As usual, the most unpredictable race of the year will usually just go to the frontrunner; therefore, Blanchett will pick up her second Oscar (both in Supporting, sadly) on Sunday. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm fairly confident. Still, I suppose any of these ladies could win.


DEE-I really think people are overestimating the SAG victory. Also, as was the problem with Eddie Murphy last year, she's being predicted, but no one has proclaimed that she deserves the Oscar. The SAG was the end for her.

RONAN-I guess she could win in a Marcia Gay Harden kind of way, but, being the only actress in this lineup without any significant precursor attention, she's the default last place choice. Her age doesn't help either.

RYAN-Her winning would make me VERY happy, but the critical darling rarely beats the industry favorite.

SWINTON-With a surge of popularity and the BAFTA win, she's the most likely upset, but I doubt anyone can take the spot away from Blanchett--contrary to popular belief.

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
SHOULD WIN: Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS:
1. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
2. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
3. Ruby Dee - American Gangster
4. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
5. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

TOMORROW: Best Supporting Actor